Söke 1970 v Denizli İYG prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Söke 1970 3–3 Denizli İYG SÖKE 1970 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Söke 1970 win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.860

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Söke 1970 win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Söke 1970 was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–27–19
1′KICK-OFF Söke 1970 v Denizli İYG
4′Denizli İYG find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 29–24–47
4′We said Söke 1970 at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–24–47
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Söke 1970 0–1 Denizli İYG
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Söke 1970 win: 54% at kick-off, 29% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Denizli İYG win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Söke 1970 win 29%)
19′We said Söke 1970 at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–26–50
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Söke 1970 win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 21–26–53
33′We said Söke 1970 at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–27–54
37′A goal for Denizli İYG on 37′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 5–12–82
37′We said Söke 1970 at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–12–82
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Söke 1970 0–2 Denizli İYG
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Söke 1970 win: 54% at kick-off, 5% now
42′We said Söke 1970 at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–84
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Söke 1970 win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
45′HALF-TIME Söke 1970 0–2 Denizli İYG
46′SECOND HALF Söke 1970 0–2 Denizli İYG
52′Söke 1970 score on 52′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 12–26–62
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Söke 1970 1–2 Denizli İYG
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Söke 1970 win: 54% at kick-off, 12% now
53′We said Söke 1970 at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 1–2 · 11–26–62
53′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 11–26–62
57′Denizli İYG find the net on 57′. 1–3. 1–3 · 2–8–90
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Söke 1970 1–3 Denizli İYG
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Söke 1970 win: 54% at kick-off, 2% now
58′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–8–91
59′A goal for Söke 1970 on 58′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 9–25–66
59′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 9–25–66
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Söke 1970 2–3 Denizli İYG
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Söke 1970 win: 54% at kick-off, 9% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Söke 1970 win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
72′Söke 1970 score on 72′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 24–64–12
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Söke 1970 3–3 Denizli İYG
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Söke 1970 win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Denizli İYG win 12%)
73′6 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 23–65–12
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Söke 1970 win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
FTFULL TIME Söke 1970 3–3 Denizli İYG
FTSöke 1970 3–3 Denizli İYG · Söke 1970 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Söke 1970 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Söke 1970 54%, draw 27%, Denizli İYG 19%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Söke 1970 v Denizli İYGBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Söke 1970 win54%

Draw27%

Denizli İYG win19%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

Round3. Lig Group 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Söke 1970

Denizli İYG

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Söke 1970	6	0	6
17	Denizli İYG	6	−10	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · söke 1970 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Söke 1970 a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Söke 1970 v Denizli İYG~~1.66 – 0.89

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 2~~12 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Söke 1970 win	54%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Denizli İYG win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Söke 1970 or draw	81%	–	–
Söke 1970 clean sheet	42%	–	–
Denizli İYG clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 9.8 5.9 3.2 1 11.8 12.4 5.0 2 10.5 9.0 4.0 3 5.9 5.0 2.2 4 2.6 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Söke 1970 down, Denizli İYG across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,335 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Söke 1970 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Denizli İYG away: 0.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Söke 1970, 0.89 for Denizli İYG. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DEN 1–0 SOK · SOK 2–3 DEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

SÖKE 1970

LWDDDL0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3

DENIZLI İYG

DLLDLL1–1 · 0–2 · 0–5 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	6	+9	16
2	Eskişehirspor	7	+13	14
3	Bursa Yıldırımspor	6	+5	14
4	Etimesgut SK	6	+6	13
5	Ayvalikgucu	6	+5	13
6	Balıkesirspor	6	+4	12
7	Anadolu Üniversitesi	6	+6	11
8	Bigaspor	6	+4	11
9	Gaziemirspor	6	0	9
10	Altay	7	−2	9
11	Karsiyaka	6	0	8
12	Söke 1970	6	0	6
13	Uşak Spor	6	−2	5
14	Bucaspor 1928	6	−7	3
15	Akşehirspor	6	−11	3
16	Kepezspor	6	−7	2
17	Denizli İYG	6	−10	2
18	Alanya 1221 FK	6	−13	1