Nilüfer Belediye v Kepezspor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Nilüfer Belediye 1–0 Kepezspor NILÜFER BELEDIYE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Nilüfer Belediye win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.284

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nilüfer Belediye win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nilüfer Belediye 57% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–24–17
1′KICK-OFF Nilüfer Belediye v Kepezspor
4′Little has changed for our model: Nilüfer Belediye 57% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–25–17
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Nilüfer Belediye 1–0 Kepezspor
22′6′ and it is 1–0: M. Gunes on the scoresheet for Nilüfer Belediye. 1–0 · 83–13–4
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Nilüfer Belediye win: 57% at kick-off, 83% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Nilüfer Belediye win: 57% at kick-off, 58% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Nilüfer Belediye win: 57% at kick-off, 83% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Nilüfer Belediye win: 57% at kick-off, 58% now
24′6′ and it is 1–0: M. Gunes on the scoresheet for Nilüfer Belediye. 1–0 · 83–13–4
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Nilüfer Belediye win: 57% at kick-off, 58% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Nilüfer Belediye win: 57% at kick-off, 83% now
43′We said Nilüfer Belediye at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–13–3
44′We said Nilüfer Belediye at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–13–3
45′HALF-TIME Nilüfer Belediye 1–0 Kepezspor
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Nilüfer Belediye win: 57% at kick-off, 84% now
46′SECOND HALF Nilüfer Belediye 1–0 Kepezspor
60′🟥 RED CARD · 60' Nilüfer Belediye
79′⚽ GOAL · 6' Nilüfer Belediye 1–0 Kepezspor · M. Gunes (assist M. Kucukdurmus)
79′🟥 RED CARD · 59' Y. Delen · Nilüfer Belediye
FTFULL TIME Nilüfer Belediye 1–0 Kepezspor
FTNilüfer Belediye 1–0 Kepezspor · Nilüfer Belediye win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Nilüfer Belediye win57%

Draw27%

Kepezspor win16%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nilüfer Belediye

Kepezspor

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	5	+8	13
16	Kepezspor	5	−6	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nilüfer belediye winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Nilüfer Belediye a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nilüfer Belediye win	57%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Kepezspor win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Nilüfer Belediye or draw	84%	–	–
Nilüfer Belediye clean sheet	46%	–	–
Kepezspor clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 10.4 5.4 2.7 1 12.8 12.3 4.3 2 11.8 9.0 3.6 3 6.7 5.1 2.0 4 2.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nilüfer Belediye down, Kepezspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,325 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Nilüfer Belediye at home: 0.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). Kepezspor away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Nilüfer Belediye, 0.79 for Kepezspor. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 2

NILÜFER BELEDIYE

WWWDW4–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

KEPEZSPOR

LLDDL0–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	5	+8	13
2	Etimesgut SK	5	+6	12
3	Anadolu Üniversitesi	5	+7	11
4	Bursa Yıldırımspor	5	+4	11
5	Eskişehirspor	5	+10	10
6	Ayvalikgucu	5	+4	10
7	Balıkesirspor	5	+2	9
8	Bigaspor	5	+3	8
9	Söke 1970	5	+1	6
10	Altay	5	0	6
11	Gaziemirspor	5	−1	6
12	Uşak Spor	5	−1	5
13	Karsiyaka	5	−1	5
14	Bucaspor 1928	5	−6	3
15	Akşehirspor	5	−9	3
16	Kepezspor	5	−6	2
17	Denizli İYG	5	−9	2
18	Alanya 1221 FK	5	−12	1