Kepezspor v Uşak Spor prediction · 3. Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KepezsporDrawUşak Spor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Uşak Spor 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Uşak Spor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kepezspor 31%, draw 31%, Uşak Spor 38%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Kepezspor v Uşak SporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Kepezspor win31%

Draw31%

Uşak Spor win38%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 10:00

Round3. Lig Group 2 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kepezspor

Uşak Spor

13Days since last match13

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Uşak Spor	7	−2	6
18	Kepezspor	7	−9	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uşak spor winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Uşak Spor a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kepezspor v Uşak Spor~~1.13 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 6~~18 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kepezspor win	31%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Uşak Spor win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Kepezspor or draw	62%	–	–
Kepezspor clean sheet	29%	–	–
Uşak Spor clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 11.3 10.1 7.3 3.2 1 8.9 14.1 7.9 3.4 2 5.8 7.0 4.4 3 2.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kepezspor down, Uşak Spor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,350 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.6% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Kepezspor at home: 0.50 scored, 1.75 conceded a game (last 4). Uşak Spor away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Kepezspor, 1.27 for Uşak Spor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

KEPEZSPOR

LDDLLL1–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–3

UŞAK SPOR

DLWLLD2–2 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	8	+9	18
2	Etimesgut SK	8	+8	17
3	Balıkesirspor	8	+9	16
4	Bursa Yıldırımspor	8	+5	16
5	Eskişehirspor	8	+13	15
6	Anadolu Üniversitesi	8	+7	15
7	Ayvalikgucu	8	+5	15
8	Bigaspor	8	+4	14
9	Karsiyaka	8	+1	12
10	Gaziemirspor	7	−1	9
11	Altay	8	−7	9
12	Söke 1970	8	−1	7
13	Uşak Spor	7	−2	6
14	Bucaspor 1928	8	−6	6
15	Denizli İYG	8	−8	6
16	Alanya 1221 FK	7	−12	4
17	Akşehirspor	8	−15	3
18	Kepezspor	7	−9	2