Kepezspor v Bucaspor 1928 prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Kepezspor 1–3 Bucaspor 1928 KEPEZSPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kepezspor win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.810

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kepezspor win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kepezspor 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–27
1′KICK-OFF Kepezspor v Bucaspor 1928
32′Bucaspor 1928 score on 32′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–62
32′We said Kepezspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–62
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Kepezspor 0–1 Bucaspor 1928
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Kepezspor win: 43% at kick-off, 14% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Bucaspor 1928 win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Kepezspor win 14%)
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Kepezspor win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
45′HALF-TIME Kepezspor 0–1 Bucaspor 1928
46′SECOND HALF Kepezspor 0–1 Bucaspor 1928
48′We said Kepezspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
60′Kepezspor find the net on 60′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–53–20
60′We said Kepezspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–53–20
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Kepezspor 1–1 Bucaspor 1928
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Kepezspor win: 43% at kick-off, 28% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Bucaspor 1928 win 20%)
62′Kepezspor level it on 61′ through T. Cevher. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–54–19
66′We said Kepezspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–17
68′A goal for Bucaspor 1928 on 68′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–19–77
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Kepezspor win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Kepezspor 1–2 Bucaspor 1928
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Kepezspor win: 43% at kick-off, 4% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Bucaspor 1928 win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
69′We said Kepezspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 3–19–78
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Kepezspor win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
70′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–18–78
70′B. Orer scores for Bucaspor 1928 on 69′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 3–18–78
88′Bucaspor 1928 score on 88′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
88′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Kepezspor 1–3 Bucaspor 1928
90′Bucaspor 1928 score on 89′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Kepezspor 1–3 Bucaspor 1928
FTKepezspor 1–3 Bucaspor 1928 · Kepezspor win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kepezspor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kepezspor 43%, draw 30%, Bucaspor 1928 27%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Kepezspor v Bucaspor 1928Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kepezspor win43%

Draw30%

Bucaspor 1928 win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

Round3. Lig Group 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kepezspor

Bucaspor 1928

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Bucaspor 1928	6	−7	3
16	Kepezspor	6	−7	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kepezspor winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Kepezspor a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kepezspor v Bucaspor 1928~~1.38 – 1.03

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 2 v 3~~16 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kepezspor win	43%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Bucaspor 1928 win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Kepezspor or draw	73%	–	–
Kepezspor clean sheet	36%	–	–
Bucaspor 1928 clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.9 8.0 4.8 1 11.0 13.8 6.4 2.3 2 8.4 8.4 4.4 3 4.0 3.9 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kepezspor down, Bucaspor 1928 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,335 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kepezspor at home: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Bucaspor 1928 away: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Kepezspor, 1.03 for Bucaspor 1928. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BUC 0–1 KEP · KEP 1–0 BUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

KEPEZSPOR

LLDDLL0–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

BUCASPOR 1928

LWLLLL1–4 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	6	+9	16
2	Eskişehirspor	7	+13	14
3	Bursa Yıldırımspor	6	+5	14
4	Etimesgut SK	6	+6	13
5	Ayvalikgucu	6	+5	13
6	Balıkesirspor	6	+4	12
7	Anadolu Üniversitesi	6	+6	11
8	Bigaspor	6	+4	11
9	Gaziemirspor	6	0	9
10	Altay	7	−2	9
11	Karsiyaka	6	0	8
12	Söke 1970	6	0	6
13	Uşak Spor	6	−2	5
14	Bucaspor 1928	6	−7	3
15	Akşehirspor	6	−11	3
16	Kepezspor	6	−7	2
17	Denizli İYG	6	−10	2
18	Alanya 1221 FK	6	−13	1