Gaziemirspor v Alanya 1221 FK

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Gaziemirspor win at 55%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Gaziemirspor 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–26–19
3. 1′KICK-OFF Gaziemirspor v Alanya 1221 FK
4. 17′A goal for Alanya 1221 FK on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 27–25–48
5. 17′We said Gaziemirspor at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–25–48
6. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Gaziemirspor 0–1 Alanya 1221 FK
7. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Gaziemirspor win: 55% at kick-off, 27% now
8. 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Alanya 1221 FK win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Gaziemirspor win 27%)
9. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Gaziemirspor win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
10. 25′We said Gaziemirspor at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–26–50
11. 29′Gaziemirspor score on 29′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 49–32–19
12. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Gaziemirspor 1–1 Alanya 1221 FK
13. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Gaziemirspor win: 55% at kick-off, 49% now
14. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Gaziemirspor win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Alanya 1221 FK win 19%)
15. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Gaziemirspor win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
16. 44′We said Gaziemirspor at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–38–18
17. 45′HALF-TIME Gaziemirspor 1–1 Alanya 1221 FK
18. 46′SECOND HALF Gaziemirspor 1–1 Alanya 1221 FK
19. 53′We said Gaziemirspor at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–44–17
20. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Gaziemirspor win 39%)
21. 54′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 39–44–17
22. 59′Gaziemirspor are down to ten from 58′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 36–48–16
23. 59′🟥 RED CARD · 58' Gaziemirspor
24. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Gaziemirspor win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
25. 61′We said Gaziemirspor at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–50–16
26. 61′Alanya 1221 FK find the net on 61′. 1–2. 1–2 · 9–25–66
27. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Gaziemirspor 1–2 Alanya 1221 FK
28. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Gaziemirspor win: 55% at kick-off, 9% now
29. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Alanya 1221 FK win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 25%)
30. 62′We said Gaziemirspor at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66
31. 62′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 9–25–66
32. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Gaziemirspor win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
33. 72′We said Gaziemirspor at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
34. 85′A second red card for Gaziemirspor on 84′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 1–9–90
35. 85′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Gaziemirspor
36. FTFULL TIME Gaziemirspor 1–2 Alanya 1221 FK
37. FTGaziemirspor 1–2 Alanya 1221 FK · Gaziemirspor win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.