Eskişehirspor v Etimesgut SK prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Eskişehirspor 1–1 Etimesgut SK ESKIŞEHIRSPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Eskişehirspor win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.807

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eskişehirspor win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Eskişehirspor 48% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
2′Little has changed for our model: Eskişehirspor 48% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
68′S. Sahinturk scores for Etimesgut SK on 58′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–21–74
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 5% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 5% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 5% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 5% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 5% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 5% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 5% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 5% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 5% now
83′S. Sahinturk scores for Etimesgut SK on 58′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 1–10–89
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Eskişehirspor win: 48% at kick-off, 5% now
90′We said Eskişehirspor at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 0–1 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Eskişehirspor 1–1 Etimesgut SK · B. Simsek
FTFULL TIME Eskişehirspor 1–1 Etimesgut SK
FTEskişehirspor 1–1 Etimesgut SK · Eskişehirspor win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Eskişehirspor win48%

Draw28%

Etimesgut SK win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Eskişehirspor

Etimesgut SK

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Etimesgut SK	5	+6	12
5	Eskişehirspor	5	+10	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eskişehirspor winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Eskişehirspor a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eskişehirspor win	48%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Etimesgut SK win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Eskişehirspor or draw	76%	–	–
Eskişehirspor clean sheet	36%	–	–
Etimesgut SK clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.5 6.2 4.0 1 10.1 12.9 5.9 2.1 2 9.0 8.9 4.6 3 4.8 4.8 2.5 4 2.0 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eskişehirspor down, Etimesgut SK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,325 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Eskişehirspor at home: 5.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). Etimesgut SK away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Eskişehirspor, 1.03 for Etimesgut SK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 2

ESKIŞEHIRSPOR

WDLWW4–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 7–1 · 3–0

ETIMESGUT SK

WWLWWW4–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	5	+8	13
2	Etimesgut SK	5	+6	12
3	Anadolu Üniversitesi	5	+7	11
4	Bursa Yıldırımspor	5	+4	11
5	Eskişehirspor	5	+10	10
6	Ayvalikgucu	5	+4	10
7	Balıkesirspor	5	+2	9
8	Bigaspor	5	+3	8
9	Söke 1970	5	+1	6
10	Altay	5	0	6
11	Gaziemirspor	5	−1	6
12	Uşak Spor	5	−1	5
13	Karsiyaka	5	−1	5
14	Bucaspor 1928	5	−6	3
15	Akşehirspor	5	−9	3
16	Kepezspor	5	−6	2
17	Denizli İYG	5	−9	2
18	Alanya 1221 FK	5	−12	1