Bursa Yıldırımspor v Uşak Spor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Bursa Yıldırımspor 1–1 Uşak Spor BURSA YILDIRIMSPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Bursa Yıldırımspor win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.740

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bursa Yıldırımspor win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bursa Yıldırımspor was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–31–26
1′KICK-OFF Bursa Yıldırımspor v Uşak Spor
6′Bursa Yıldırımspor score on 5′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–9
6′We published Bursa Yıldırımspor at 44%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–9
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Bursa Yıldırımspor 1–0 Uşak Spor
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Bursa Yıldırımspor win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
9′4′: C. Arslan on the scoresheet for Bursa Yıldırımspor, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–9
11′We published Bursa Yıldırımspor at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–9
21′Uşak Spor find the net on 20′. 1–1. 1–1 · 40–35–25
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Bursa Yıldırımspor 1–1 Uşak Spor
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Bursa Yıldırımspor win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Bursa Yıldırımspor win 36%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Bursa Yıldırımspor win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Bursa Yıldırımspor 1–1 Uşak Spor
46′SECOND HALF Bursa Yıldırımspor 1–1 Uşak Spor
50′We said Bursa Yıldırımspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–47–21
57′We said Bursa Yıldırımspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–19
63′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 26–57–18
66′We said Bursa Yıldırımspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–16
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Bursa Yıldırımspor win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
73′We said Bursa Yıldırımspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
78′We said Bursa Yıldırımspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–10
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Bursa Yıldırımspor win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
83′We said Bursa Yıldırımspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–6
90′We said Bursa Yıldırımspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Bursa Yıldırımspor win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Bursa Yıldırımspor 1–1 Uşak Spor
FTBursa Yıldırımspor 1–1 Uşak Spor · Bursa Yıldırımspor win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bursa Yıldırımspor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bursa Yıldırımspor 44%, draw 31%, Uşak Spor 26%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Bursa Yıldırımspor v Uşak SporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bursa Yıldırımspor win44%

Draw31%

Uşak Spor win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

Round3. Lig Group 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bursa Yıldırımspor

Uşak Spor

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bursa Yıldırımspor	6	+5	14
13	Uşak Spor	6	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bursa yıldırımspor winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Bursa Yıldırımspor a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bursa Yıldırımspor v Uşak Spor~~1.33 – 0.96

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 5~~3 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bursa Yıldırımspor win	44%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Uşak Spor win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Bursa Yıldırımspor or draw	74%	–	–
Bursa Yıldırımspor clean sheet	39%	–	–
Uşak Spor clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 12.2 8.4 4.7 1 12.1 13.8 6.0 2 8.9 8.2 3.9 3 4.0 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bursa Yıldırımspor down, Uşak Spor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,335 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Bursa Yıldırımspor at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Uşak Spor away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Bursa Yıldırımspor, 0.96 for Uşak Spor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

BURSA YILDIRIMSPOR

WWDDWW1–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

UŞAK SPOR

DDLWLL1–1 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	6	+9	16
2	Eskişehirspor	7	+13	14
3	Bursa Yıldırımspor	6	+5	14
4	Etimesgut SK	6	+6	13
5	Ayvalikgucu	6	+5	13
6	Balıkesirspor	6	+4	12
7	Anadolu Üniversitesi	6	+6	11
8	Bigaspor	6	+4	11
9	Gaziemirspor	6	0	9
10	Altay	7	−2	9
11	Karsiyaka	6	0	8
12	Söke 1970	6	0	6
13	Uşak Spor	6	−2	5
14	Bucaspor 1928	6	−7	3
15	Akşehirspor	6	−11	3
16	Kepezspor	6	−7	2
17	Denizli İYG	6	−10	2
18	Alanya 1221 FK	6	−13	1