Bucaspor 1928 v Gaziemirspor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Bucaspor 1928 1–2 Gaziemirspor BUCASPOR 1928 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bucaspor 1928 win~~39%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.708

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.706

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bucaspor 1928 win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bucaspor 1928 was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
2′Much as we predicted: Bucaspor 1928 was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
42′M. F. Turkozu scores for Gaziemirspor on 39′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–67
45′M. F. Turkozu scores for Gaziemirspor on 39′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–23–68
45′We said Bucaspor 1928 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
49′We said Bucaspor 1928 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–23–69
69′65′ and it is 1–1: O. Caner on the scoresheet for Bucaspor 1928. 1–1 · 21–60–19
85′Gaziemirspor ahead on 74′ through E. Ozkan. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–93
90′Gaziemirspor ahead on 74′ through E. Ozkan. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–0–100
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Gaziemirspor win 19%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Bucaspor 1928 win: 39% at kick-off, 0% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Gaziemirspor win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Bucaspor 1928 win: 39% at kick-off, 21% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Gaziemirspor win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
FTFULL TIME Bucaspor 1928 1–2 Gaziemirspor
FTBucaspor 1928 1–2 Gaziemirspor · Bucaspor 1928 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Bucaspor 1928 win39%

Draw30%

Gaziemirspor win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bucaspor 1928

Gaziemirspor

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Gaziemirspor	5	−1	6
14	Bucaspor 1928	5	−6	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bucaspor 1928 winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make Bucaspor 1928 a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bucaspor 1928 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bucaspor 1928 win	39%	41%	−2
Draw	30%	27%	+2
Gaziemirspor win	32%	32%	0
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	−1
Both teams to score	53%	53%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	27%	−1
Bucaspor 1928 or draw	68%	68%	0
Bucaspor 1928 clean sheet	31%	–	–
Gaziemirspor clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 9.8 7.8 5.6 2.3 1 9.0 13.8 7.3 3.0 2 7.1 8.2 4.9 2.0 3 3.3 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bucaspor 1928 down, Gaziemirspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,325 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Bucaspor 1928 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Gaziemirspor away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Bucaspor 1928, 1.20 for Gaziemirspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 2

BUCASPOR 1928

LWLLL1–4 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

GAZIEMIRSPOR

LLWWL0–3 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	5	+8	13
2	Etimesgut SK	5	+6	12
3	Anadolu Üniversitesi	5	+7	11
4	Bursa Yıldırımspor	5	+4	11
5	Eskişehirspor	5	+10	10
6	Ayvalikgucu	5	+4	10
7	Balıkesirspor	5	+2	9
8	Bigaspor	5	+3	8
9	Söke 1970	5	+1	6
10	Altay	5	0	6
11	Gaziemirspor	5	−1	6
12	Uşak Spor	5	−1	5
13	Karsiyaka	5	−1	5
14	Bucaspor 1928	5	−6	3
15	Akşehirspor	5	−9	3
16	Kepezspor	5	−6	2
17	Denizli İYG	5	−9	2
18	Alanya 1221 FK	5	−12	1