Bigaspor v Akşehirspor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Bigaspor 2–0 Akşehirspor BIGASPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bigaspor win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.214

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bigaspor win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bigaspor 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–22–16
1′KICK-OFF Bigaspor v Akşehirspor
34′A goal for Bigaspor on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–5
34′We said Bigaspor at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–5
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Bigaspor 1–0 Akşehirspor
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Bigaspor win: 62% at kick-off, 83% now
35′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–4
45′HALF-TIME Bigaspor 1–0 Akşehirspor
46′SECOND HALF Bigaspor 1–0 Akşehirspor
56′Bigaspor score on 56′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
56′We said Bigaspor at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Bigaspor 2–0 Akşehirspor
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Bigaspor win: 62% at kick-off, 97% now
80′We said Bigaspor at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Bigaspor 2–0 Akşehirspor
FTBigaspor 2–0 Akşehirspor · Bigaspor win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bigaspor are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bigaspor 62%, draw 22%, Akşehirspor 16%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Bigaspor v AkşehirsporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bigaspor win62%

Draw22%

Akşehirspor win16%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

Round3. Lig Group 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bigaspor

Akşehirspor

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Bigaspor	6	+4	11
15	Akşehirspor	6	−11	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bigaspor winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Bigaspor a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bigaspor v Akşehirspor~~2.17 – 1.00

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 3~~8 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bigaspor win	62%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Akşehirspor win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Bigaspor or draw	84%	–	–
Bigaspor clean sheet	37%	–	–
Akşehirspor clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 5.7 3.4 2.2 1 8.3 10.0 4.5 2 9.7 9.5 4.7 3 7.0 6.8 3.4 4 3.9 3.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bigaspor down, Akşehirspor across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,335 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Bigaspor at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Akşehirspor away: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for Bigaspor, 1.00 for Akşehirspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

BIGASPOR

DDWLWW1–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 3–2

AKŞEHIRSPOR

LLWLLL0–4 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	6	+9	16
2	Eskişehirspor	7	+13	14
3	Bursa Yıldırımspor	6	+5	14
4	Etimesgut SK	6	+6	13
5	Ayvalikgucu	6	+5	13
6	Balıkesirspor	6	+4	12
7	Anadolu Üniversitesi	6	+6	11
8	Bigaspor	6	+4	11
9	Gaziemirspor	6	0	9
10	Altay	7	−2	9
11	Karsiyaka	6	0	8
12	Söke 1970	6	0	6
13	Uşak Spor	6	−2	5
14	Bucaspor 1928	6	−7	3
15	Akşehirspor	6	−11	3
16	Kepezspor	6	−7	2
17	Denizli İYG	6	−10	2
18	Alanya 1221 FK	6	−13	1