Balıkesirspor v Altay prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Balıkesirspor 5–0 Altay BALIKESIRSPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Balıkesirspor win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.254

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Balıkesirspor win at 59%.
2′Much as we predicted: Balıkesirspor was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–22–19
2′KICK-OFF Balıkesirspor v Altay
7′A goal for Balıkesirspor on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–12–8
7′We published Balıkesirspor at 59%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–12–8
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Balıkesirspor 1–0 Altay
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Balıkesirspor win: 59% at kick-off, 81% now
17′Balıkesirspor score on 16′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–2
17′We published Balıkesirspor at 59%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Balıkesirspor 2–0 Altay
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Balıkesirspor win: 59% at kick-off, 93% now
39′We published Balıkesirspor at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
43′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Balıkesirspor 2–0 Altay
46′SECOND HALF Balıkesirspor 2–0 Altay
56′Balıkesirspor find the net on 56′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–0–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Balıkesirspor 3–0 Altay · A. Akman (assist E. Gemici)
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Balıkesirspor win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
58′We published Balıkesirspor at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′A goal for Balıkesirspor on 76′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Balıkesirspor 4–0 Altay
78′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
90′Balıkesirspor score on 89′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Balıkesirspor 5–0 Altay
FTFULL TIME Balıkesirspor 5–0 Altay
FTBalıkesirspor 5–0 Altay · Balıkesirspor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Balıkesirspor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Balıkesirspor 59%, draw 22%, Altay 19%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Balıkesirspor v AltayBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Balıkesirspor win59%

Draw22%

Altay win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

Round3. Lig Group 2 · matchday 8

VenueBalikesir Ataturk Stadyumu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Balıkesirspor

Altay

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 2

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Balıkesirspor	7	+4	13
11	Altay	7	−2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · balıkesirspor winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Balıkesirspor a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Balıkesirspor v Altay~~2.19 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 9~~8 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Balıkesirspor win	59%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Altay win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Balıkesirspor or draw	81%	–	–
Balıkesirspor clean sheet	32%	–	–
Altay clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 5.2 3.3 2.5 1 6.9 10.0 5.1 2.0 2 8.3 9.2 5.3 2.1 3 5.9 6.6 3.8 4 3.3 3.7 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Balıkesirspor down, Altay across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,343 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Balıkesirspor at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Altay away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Balıkesirspor, 1.16 for Altay. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAL 3–0 ALT · ALT 0–1 BAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

BALIKESIRSPOR

WWLLWD3–0 · 4–1 · 1–7 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 2–2

ALTAY

DLWDWL1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	8	+9	18
2	Etimesgut SK	8	+8	17
3	Anadolu Üniversitesi	8	+7	15
4	Ayvalikgucu	8	+5	15
5	Bursa Yıldırımspor	7	+5	15
6	Eskişehirspor	7	+13	14
7	Bigaspor	8	+4	14
8	Balıkesirspor	7	+4	13
9	Karsiyaka	7	0	9
10	Gaziemirspor	7	−1	9
11	Altay	7	−2	9
12	Söke 1970	7	0	7
13	Uşak Spor	7	−2	6
14	Bucaspor 1928	8	−6	6
15	Denizli İYG	8	−8	6
16	Alanya 1221 FK	7	−12	4
17	Akşehirspor	8	−15	3
18	Kepezspor	7	−9	2