Balıkesirspor v Akşehirspor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Balıkesirspor 3–1 Akşehirspor BALIKESIRSPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Balıkesirspor win~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.155

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Balıkesirspor win at 68%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Balıkesirspor 68% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–16–14
2′Little has changed for our model: Balıkesirspor 68% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–14
42′Balıkesirspor ahead on 39′ through A. Gayla. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–4
45′Balıkesirspor ahead on 39′ through A. Gayla. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–4
45′O. Gumus scores for Akşehirspor on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 56–29–16
47′O. Gumus scores for Akşehirspor on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 55–30–16
67′61′ and it is 2–1: E. Gemici on the scoresheet for Balıkesirspor. 2–1 · 86–12–2
83′61′ and it is 2–1: E. Gemici on the scoresheet for Balıkesirspor. 2–1 · 93–7–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Balıkesirspor win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Balıkesirspor win: 68% at kick-off, 93% now
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Balıkesirspor 3–1 Akşehirspor
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Balıkesirspor win: 68% at kick-off, 93% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Balıkesirspor win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Balıkesirspor win: 68% at kick-off, 93% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Balıkesirspor win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
90′Balıkesirspor ahead on 87′ through E. Kaya. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Balıkesirspor win: 68% at kick-off, 93% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Balıkesirspor win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Balıkesirspor win: 68% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Balıkesirspor 3–1 Akşehirspor
FTBalıkesirspor 3–1 Akşehirspor · Balıkesirspor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Balıkesirspor win68%

Draw18%

Akşehirspor win14%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

VenueBalikesir Ataturk Stadyumu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Balıkesirspor

Akşehirspor

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Balıkesirspor	5	+2	9
15	Akşehirspor	5	−9	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · balıkesirspor winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Balıkesirspor a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Balıkesirspor win	68%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Akşehirspor win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Balıkesirspor or draw	86%	–	–
Balıkesirspor clean sheet	33%	–	–
Akşehirspor clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 3.7 1 5.6 7.8 3.9 2 8.0 8.6 4.8 3 6.8 7.4 4.1 4 4.5 4.9 2.7 5 2.5 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Balıkesirspor down, Akşehirspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,325 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Balıkesirspor at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Akşehirspor away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

2.66 goals for Balıkesirspor, 1.13 for Akşehirspor. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 2

BALIKESIRSPOR

DWWWLL0–0 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 1–7 · 2–3

AKŞEHIRSPOR

LLWLL0–4 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	5	+8	13
2	Etimesgut SK	5	+6	12
3	Anadolu Üniversitesi	5	+7	11
4	Bursa Yıldırımspor	5	+4	11
5	Eskişehirspor	5	+10	10
6	Ayvalikgucu	5	+4	10
7	Balıkesirspor	5	+2	9
8	Bigaspor	5	+3	8
9	Söke 1970	5	+1	6
10	Altay	5	0	6
11	Gaziemirspor	5	−1	6
12	Uşak Spor	5	−1	5
13	Karsiyaka	5	−1	5
14	Bucaspor 1928	5	−6	3
15	Akşehirspor	5	−9	3
16	Kepezspor	5	−6	2
17	Denizli İYG	5	−9	2
18	Alanya 1221 FK	5	−12	1