Ayvalikgucu v Karsiyaka prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Ayvalikgucu 0–0 Karsiyaka AYVALIKGUCU WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ayvalikgucu win~~49%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.820

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.763

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ayvalikgucu win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ayvalikgucu was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–28–23
1′KICK-OFF Ayvalikgucu v Karsiyaka
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Ayvalikgucu win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME Ayvalikgucu 0–0 Karsiyaka
46′SECOND HALF Ayvalikgucu 0–0 Karsiyaka
49′We said Ayvalikgucu at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–42–20
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Ayvalikgucu win 37%)
55′We said Ayvalikgucu at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–19
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 34–46–19
64′We said Ayvalikgucu at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Ayvalikgucu win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
71′We said Ayvalikgucu at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–14
76′We said Ayvalikgucu at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Ayvalikgucu win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
81′We said Ayvalikgucu at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–78–8
84′We said Ayvalikgucu at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Ayvalikgucu win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
91′We said Ayvalikgucu at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Ayvalikgucu 0–0 Karsiyaka
FTAyvalikgucu 0–0 Karsiyaka · Ayvalikgucu win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ayvalikgucu are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ayvalikgucu 49%, draw 28%, Karsiyaka 23%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Ayvalikgucu v KarsiyakaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ayvalikgucu win49%

Draw28%

Karsiyaka win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

Round3. Lig Group 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ayvalikgucu

Karsiyaka

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Ayvalikgucu	6	+5	13
11	Karsiyaka	6	0	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ayvalikgucu winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market42%

Us49%

~~Market~~42%

We make Ayvalikgucu a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ayvalikgucu v Karsiyaka~~1.60 – 1.00

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~5 v 11

~~The market · Ayvalikgucu win~~42% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ayvalikgucu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ayvalikgucu win	49%	42%	+7
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Karsiyaka win	23%	29%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	47%	42%	+5
Both teams to score	49%	49%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	66%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	27%	23%	+4
Ayvalikgucu or draw	77%	71%	+6
Ayvalikgucu clean sheet	38%	–	–
Karsiyaka clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.8 6.5 3.9 1 10.8 12.6 5.7 2 9.2 8.6 4.3 3 5.0 4.6 2.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ayvalikgucu down, Karsiyaka across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,335 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ayvalikgucu at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Karsiyaka away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Ayvalikgucu, 1.00 for Karsiyaka. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KAR 0–2 AYV · AYV 0–0 KAR · KAR 2–0 AYV · AYV 0–0 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

AYVALIKGUCU

WWLWDW3–0 · 4–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

KARSIYAKA

LDDLWW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	6	+9	16
2	Eskişehirspor	7	+13	14
3	Bursa Yıldırımspor	6	+5	14
4	Etimesgut SK	6	+6	13
5	Ayvalikgucu	6	+5	13
6	Balıkesirspor	6	+4	12
7	Anadolu Üniversitesi	6	+6	11
8	Bigaspor	6	+4	11
9	Gaziemirspor	6	0	9
10	Altay	7	−2	9
11	Karsiyaka	6	0	8
12	Söke 1970	6	0	6
13	Uşak Spor	6	−2	5
14	Bucaspor 1928	6	−7	3
15	Akşehirspor	6	−11	3
16	Kepezspor	6	−7	2
17	Denizli İYG	6	−10	2
18	Alanya 1221 FK	6	−13	1