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Altay v Eskişehirspor

Altay

1–4Full time

Eskişehirspor

3. Lig - Group 2 · SAT 17 OCT · Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Altay 1–4 Eskişehirspor ESKIŞEHIRSPOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eskişehirspor win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.609

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eskişehirspor win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Eskişehirspor 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
1′KICK-OFF Altay v Eskişehirspor
27′Altay score on 26′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 66–21–13
27′We said Eskişehirspor at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 66–21–13
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Altay 1–0 Eskişehirspor
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Eskişehirspor win: 36% at kick-off, 13% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Altay win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Eskişehirspor win 13%)
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–12
43′We said Eskişehirspor at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
45′HALF-TIME Altay 1–0 Eskişehirspor
46′SECOND HALF Altay 1–0 Eskişehirspor
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Eskişehirspor win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
65′We said Eskişehirspor at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 77–19–4
68′Eskişehirspor find the net on 68′. 1–1. 1–1 · 21–58–21
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Altay 1–1 Eskişehirspor
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Eskişehirspor win: 36% at kick-off, 21% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Altay win 21%)
69′We said Eskişehirspor at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 20–59–21
71′We said Eskişehirspor at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
75′A goal for Eskişehirspor on 75′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Eskişehirspor win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Altay 1–2 Eskişehirspor
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Eskişehirspor win: 36% at kick-off, 84% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Eskişehirspor win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
76′A. Yildirim scores for Eskişehirspor on 74′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–85
76′We said Eskişehirspor at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
77′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–13–86
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Eskişehirspor win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
79′Eskişehirspor score on 79′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Altay 1–3 Eskişehirspor
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Eskişehirspor win: 36% at kick-off, 99% now
80′We said Eskişehirspor at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 1–3 · 0–1–99
80′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
83′We said Eskişehirspor at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
92′Eskişehirspor find the net on 90′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
92′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Altay 1–4 Eskişehirspor
FTFULL TIME Altay 1–4 Eskişehirspor
FTAltay 1–4 Eskişehirspor · Eskişehirspor win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Eskişehirspor just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Altay 35%, draw 29%, Eskişehirspor 36%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Altay v EskişehirsporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Altay win35%

Draw29%

Eskişehirspor win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

Round3. Lig Group 2 · matchday 7

VenueAlsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Altay

Eskişehirspor

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Eskişehirspor	6	+10	11
9	Altay	6	+1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eskişehirspor winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:06 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Eskişehirspor a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Altay v Eskişehirspor~~1.31 – 1.34

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~9 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Eskişehirspor win

Published at 38%, 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Altay win	35%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Eskişehirspor win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Altay or draw	64%	–	–
Altay clean sheet	27%	–	–
Eskişehirspor clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 8.9 8.2 6.4 2.9 1 8.0 13.4 8.0 3.6 2 6.1 7.8 5.2 2.4 3 2.7 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Altay down, Eskişehirspor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,334 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Altay at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Eskişehirspor away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Altay, 1.34 for Eskişehirspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ESK 2–1 ALT · ALT 2–3 ESK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

ALTAY

DDLWDW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

ESKIŞEHIRSPOR

WDLWWD4–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 7–1 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	6	+9	16
2	Bursa Yıldırımspor	6	+5	14
3	Etimesgut SK	6	+6	13
4	Ayvalikgucu	6	+5	13
5	Balıkesirspor	6	+4	12
6	Eskişehirspor	6	+10	11
7	Anadolu Üniversitesi	6	+6	11
8	Bigaspor	6	+4	11
9	Altay	6	+1	9
10	Gaziemirspor	6	0	9
11	Karsiyaka	6	0	8
12	Söke 1970	6	0	6
13	Uşak Spor	6	−2	5
14	Bucaspor 1928	6	−7	3
15	Akşehirspor	6	−11	3
16	Kepezspor	6	−7	2
17	Denizli İYG	6	−10	2
18	Alanya 1221 FK	6	−13	1