Alanya 1221 FK v Kepezspor prediction · 3. Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Alanya 1221 FKDrawKepezspor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Alanya 1221 FK 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alanya 1221 FK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alanya 1221 FK 44%, draw 30%, Kepezspor 27%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Alanya 1221 FK v KepezsporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Alanya 1221 FK win44%

Draw30%

Kepezspor win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

Round3. Lig Group 2 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alanya 1221 FK

Kepezspor

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Alanya 1221 FK	7	−12	4
18	Kepezspor	7	−9	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alanya 1221 fk winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Alanya 1221 FK a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alanya 1221 FK v Kepezspor~~1.42 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 4 v 2~~16 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alanya 1221 FK win	44%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Kepezspor win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Alanya 1221 FK or draw	73%	–	–
Alanya 1221 FK clean sheet	36%	–	–
Kepezspor clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.8 7.6 4.7 1 10.7 13.6 6.3 2.3 2 8.5 8.4 4.4 3 4.1 4.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alanya 1221 FK down, Kepezspor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,343 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Alanya 1221 FK at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kepezspor away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Alanya 1221 FK, 1.04 for Kepezspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

ALANYA 1221 FK

LLLDLW0–3 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

KEPEZSPOR

LDDLLL1–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	8	+9	18
2	Etimesgut SK	8	+8	17
3	Anadolu Üniversitesi	8	+7	15
4	Ayvalikgucu	8	+5	15
5	Bursa Yıldırımspor	7	+5	15
6	Eskişehirspor	7	+13	14
7	Bigaspor	8	+4	14
8	Balıkesirspor	7	+4	13
9	Karsiyaka	7	0	9
10	Gaziemirspor	7	−1	9
11	Altay	7	−2	9
12	Söke 1970	7	0	7
13	Uşak Spor	7	−2	6
14	Bucaspor 1928	8	−6	6
15	Denizli İYG	8	−8	6
16	Alanya 1221 FK	7	−12	4
17	Akşehirspor	8	−15	3
18	Kepezspor	7	−9	2