Alanya 1221 FK v Bursa Yıldırımspor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Alanya 1221 FK 0–1 Bursa Yıldırımspor BURSA YILDIRIMSPOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bursa Yıldırımspor win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.551

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bursa Yıldırımspor win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Alanya 1221 FK v Bursa Yıldırımspor
3′Much as we predicted: Bursa Yıldırımspor was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
4′Much as we predicted: Bursa Yıldırımspor was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Bursa Yıldırımspor win 32%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Bursa Yıldırımspor win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Draw 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Alanya 1221 FK 0–0 Bursa Yıldırımspor
46′SECOND HALF Alanya 1221 FK 0–0 Bursa Yıldırımspor
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Alanya 1221 FK 0–1 Bursa Yıldırımspor
FTFULL TIME Alanya 1221 FK 0–1 Bursa Yıldırımspor
FTAlanya 1221 FK 0–1 Bursa Yıldırımspor · Bursa Yıldırımspor win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Alanya 1221 FK win30%

Draw30%

Bursa Yıldırımspor win39%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Alanya 1221 FK

Bursa Yıldırımspor

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bursa Yıldırımspor	5	+4	11
18	Alanya 1221 FK	5	−12	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bursa yıldırımspor winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Bursa Yıldırımspor a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alanya 1221 FK win	30%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Bursa Yıldırımspor win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Alanya 1221 FK or draw	61%	–	–
Alanya 1221 FK clean sheet	28%	–	–
Bursa Yıldırımspor clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.4 10.1 7.5 3.4 1 8.4 13.9 7.9 3.5 2 5.5 6.8 4.3 3 2.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alanya 1221 FK down, Bursa Yıldırımspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,325 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Alanya 1221 FK at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bursa Yıldırımspor away: 1.00 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Alanya 1221 FK, 1.31 for Bursa Yıldırımspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 2

ALANYA 1221 FK

WLLLLD1–0 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 0–0

BURSA YILDIRIMSPOR

WWDDW1–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	5	+8	13
2	Etimesgut SK	5	+6	12
3	Anadolu Üniversitesi	5	+7	11
4	Bursa Yıldırımspor	5	+4	11
5	Eskişehirspor	5	+10	10
6	Ayvalikgucu	5	+4	10
7	Balıkesirspor	5	+2	9
8	Bigaspor	5	+3	8
9	Söke 1970	5	+1	6
10	Altay	5	0	6
11	Gaziemirspor	5	−1	6
12	Uşak Spor	5	−1	5
13	Karsiyaka	5	−1	5
14	Bucaspor 1928	5	−6	3
15	Akşehirspor	5	−9	3
16	Kepezspor	5	−6	2
17	Denizli İYG	5	−9	2
18	Alanya 1221 FK	5	−12	1