Akşehirspor v Etimesgut SK prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Akşehirspor 0–2 Etimesgut SK ETIMESGUT SK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Etimesgut SK win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.492

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Etimesgut SK win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Etimesgut SK was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 27–30–43
1′KICK-OFF Akşehirspor v Etimesgut SK
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Etimesgut SK win 38%)
45′HALF-TIME Akşehirspor 0–0 Etimesgut SK
46′SECOND HALF Akşehirspor 0–0 Etimesgut SK
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Etimesgut SK win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
52′We said Etimesgut SK at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 22–47–31
57′We said Etimesgut SK at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 21–50–29
58′Etimesgut SK score on 58′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–17–80
58′We published Etimesgut SK at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Akşehirspor 0–1 Etimesgut SK
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Etimesgut SK win: 43% at kick-off, 80% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Etimesgut SK win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 50%)
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Etimesgut SK win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
72′Etimesgut SK find the net on 71′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
72′We published Etimesgut SK at 43%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Akşehirspor 0–2 Etimesgut SK
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Etimesgut SK win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
73′Etimesgut SK ahead on 63′ through Y. Ozan. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
73′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–2 · 0–1–99
81′We published Etimesgut SK at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Akşehirspor 0–2 Etimesgut SK
FTAkşehirspor 0–2 Etimesgut SK · Etimesgut SK win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Etimesgut SK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Akşehirspor 27%, draw 30%, Etimesgut SK 43%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Akşehirspor v Etimesgut SKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Akşehirspor win27%

Draw30%

Etimesgut SK win43%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

Round3. Lig Group 2 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Akşehirspor

Etimesgut SK

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Etimesgut SK	7	+6	14
17	Akşehirspor	7	−13	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · etimesgut sk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Etimesgut SK a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Akşehirspor v Etimesgut SK~~1.03 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 14~~17 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Etimesgut SK win

Published at 42%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Akşehirspor win	27%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Etimesgut SK win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Akşehirspor or draw	57%	–	–
Akşehirspor clean sheet	26%	–	–
Etimesgut SK clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 11.2 10.9 8.4 3.9 1 8.0 13.8 8.4 3.9 2 4.9 6.4 4.3 2.0 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Akşehirspor down, Etimesgut SK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,343 3. Lig - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Akşehirspor at home: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 3). Etimesgut SK away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Akşehirspor, 1.36 for Etimesgut SK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

AKŞEHIRSPOR

LWLLLL1–2 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–2

ETIMESGUT SK

LWWWDD0–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nilüfer Belediye	7	+9	17
2	Bursa Yıldırımspor	7	+5	15
3	Eskişehirspor	7	+13	14
4	Bigaspor	7	+6	14
5	Etimesgut SK	7	+6	14
6	Ayvalikgucu	7	+5	14
7	Balıkesirspor	7	+4	13
8	Anadolu Üniversitesi	7	+6	12
9	Karsiyaka	7	0	9
10	Gaziemirspor	7	−1	9
11	Altay	7	−2	9
12	Söke 1970	7	0	7
13	Uşak Spor	7	−2	6
14	Bucaspor 1928	7	−5	6
15	Alanya 1221 FK	7	−12	4
16	Denizli İYG	7	−10	3
17	Akşehirspor	7	−13	3
18	Kepezspor	7	−9	2