Zonguldak Kömürspor v Fatsa Belediyespor prediction · 3. Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Zonguldak KömürsporDrawFatsa Belediyespor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Fatsa Belediyespor 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fatsa Belediyespor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zonguldak Kömürspor 24%, draw 28%, Fatsa Belediyespor 49%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Zonguldak Kömürspor v Fatsa BelediyesporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Zonguldak Kömürspor win24%

Draw28%

Fatsa Belediyespor win49%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 10:00

Round3. Lig Group 1 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zonguldak Kömürspor

Fatsa Belediyespor

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 1

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fatsa belediyespor winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Fatsa Belediyespor a 49% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zonguldak Kömürspor v Fatsa Belediyespor~~0.94 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 17~~12 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zonguldak Kömürspor win	24%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Fatsa Belediyespor win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Zonguldak Kömürspor or draw	51%	–	–
Zonguldak Kömürspor clean sheet	24%	–	–
Fatsa Belediyespor clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 10.5 12.3 9.5 4.9 2.0 1 7.6 12.5 8.4 4.2 2 4.1 5.6 4.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zonguldak Kömürspor down, Fatsa Belediyespor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,371 3. Lig - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zonguldak Kömürspor at home: 0.75 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Fatsa Belediyespor away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Zonguldak Kömürspor, 1.50 for Fatsa Belediyespor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ZON 2–1 FAT · FAT 3–1 ZON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

ZONGULDAK KÖMÜRSPOR

LDDWWD0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

FATSA BELEDIYESPOR

DWWWWW1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Fatsa Belediyespor	7	+10	17
2	Pazarspor	8	+8	17
3	Küçükçekmece Sinopspor	8	+2	14
4	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	8	+1	13
5	Karabük İdman Yurdu	8	−1	13
6	Kartal Bulvarspor	7	+6	12
7	Orduspor 1967	8	+3	12
8	Amasyaspor 1968	8	−1	12
9	Galata	7	+3	10
10	Düzcespor	8	+2	10
11	Beykoz Anadolu	8	+1	9
12	Zonguldak Kömürspor	8	−2	9
13	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	8	−4	8
14	İnkılapspor	7	−4	8
15	Gölcükspor	8	−2	7
16	Silivrispor	8	−4	7
17	Yalova Yeşilovaspor	8	−9	6
18	Beykoz İshaklıspor	8	−9	2