Yalova Yeşilovaspor v Amasyaspor 1968 prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1–1 Amasyaspor 1968 AMASYASPOR 1968 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Amasyaspor 1968 win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.780

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Amasyaspor 1968 win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Amasyaspor 1968 was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
1′KICK-OFF Yalova Yeşilovaspor v Amasyaspor 1968
36′Yalova Yeşilovaspor find the net on 36′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–22–11
36′We said Amasyaspor 1968 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 66–22–11
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1–0 Amasyaspor 1968
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Amasyaspor 1968 win: 39% at kick-off, 11% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Yalova Yeşilovaspor win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Amasyaspor 1968 win 11%)
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 67–22–11
45′We said Amasyaspor 1968 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Amasyaspor 1968 win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
45′HALF-TIME Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1–0 Amasyaspor 1968
46′SECOND HALF Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1–0 Amasyaspor 1968
64′We said Amasyaspor 1968 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
71′A goal for Amasyaspor 1968 on 71′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 18–63–20
71′We said Amasyaspor 1968 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 1–1 · 18–63–20
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1–1 Amasyaspor 1968
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Amasyaspor 1968 win: 39% at kick-off, 20% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Yalova Yeşilovaspor win 18%)
72′We said Amasyaspor 1968 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 17–64–19
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Amasyaspor 1968 win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
FTFULL TIME Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1–1 Amasyaspor 1968
FTYalova Yeşilovaspor 1–1 Amasyaspor 1968 · Amasyaspor 1968 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Amasyaspor 1968 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yalova Yeşilovaspor 33%, draw 28%, Amasyaspor 1968 39%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Yalova Yeşilovaspor v Amasyaspor 1968Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Yalova Yeşilovaspor win33%

Draw28%

Amasyaspor 1968 win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

Round3. Lig Group 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yalova Yeşilovaspor

Amasyaspor 1968

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Amasyaspor 1968	6	+2	11
16	Yalova Yeşilovaspor	6	−7	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · amasyaspor 1968 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Amasyaspor 1968 a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yalova Yeşilovaspor v Amasyaspor 1968~~1.23 – 1.35

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 11~~16 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yalova Yeşilovaspor win	33%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Amasyaspor 1968 win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Yalova Yeşilovaspor or draw	61%	–	–
Yalova Yeşilovaspor clean sheet	27%	–	–
Amasyaspor 1968 clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.3 9.6 6.9 3.2 1 8.7 12.8 7.9 3.6 2 5.8 7.2 4.8 2.2 3 2.5 3.1 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yalova Yeşilovaspor down, Amasyaspor 1968 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,358 3. Lig - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Yalova Yeşilovaspor at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Amasyaspor 1968 away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Yalova Yeşilovaspor, 1.35 for Amasyaspor 1968. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

YALOVA YEŞILOVASPOR

LWDLLD0–3 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 0–0

AMASYASPOR 1968

WDDLWW1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Fatsa Belediyespor	7	+10	17
2	Pazarspor	6	+7	13
3	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	7	+3	13
4	Kartal Bulvarspor	6	+6	11
5	Amasyaspor 1968	6	+2	11
6	Galata	7	+3	10
7	Karabük İdman Yurdu	6	+1	10
8	Orduspor 1967	7	0	9
9	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	6	+1	8
10	Küçükçekmece Sinopspor	6	−3	8
11	İnkılapspor	7	−4	8
12	Düzcespor	6	0	7
13	Gölcükspor	7	−2	6
14	Beykoz Anadolu	6	−1	5
15	Zonguldak Kömürspor	6	−3	5
16	Yalova Yeşilovaspor	6	−7	5
17	Silivrispor	6	−5	4
18	Beykoz İshaklıspor	6	−8	1