Tokat Bld Plevnespor v Zonguldak Kömürspor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Tokat Bld Plevnespor 0–1 Zonguldak Kömürspor TOKAT BLD PLEVNESPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tokat Bld Plevnespor win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.859

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tokat Bld Plevnespor win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Tokat Bld Plevnespor v Zonguldak Kömürspor
2′Much as we predicted: Tokat Bld Plevnespor was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
3′Much as we predicted: Tokat Bld Plevnespor was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Tokat Bld Plevnespor win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Tokat Bld Plevnespor win: 47% at kick-off, 43% now
45′HALF-TIME Tokat Bld Plevnespor 0–0 Zonguldak Kömürspor
46′SECOND HALF Tokat Bld Plevnespor 0–0 Zonguldak Kömürspor
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Tokat Bld Plevnespor win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Tokat Bld Plevnespor win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Tokat Bld Plevnespor win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Tokat Bld Plevnespor 0–1 Zonguldak Kömürspor
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Tokat Bld Plevnespor win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
FTFULL TIME Tokat Bld Plevnespor 0–1 Zonguldak Kömürspor
FTTokat Bld Plevnespor 0–1 Zonguldak Kömürspor · Tokat Bld Plevnespor win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Tokat Bld Plevnespor win47%

Draw28%

Zonguldak Kömürspor win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Tokat Bld Plevnespor

Zonguldak Kömürspor

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	5	+2	8
17	Zonguldak Kömürspor	5	−4	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tokat bld plevnespor winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Tokat Bld Plevnespor a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tokat Bld Plevnespor win	47%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Zonguldak Kömürspor win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Tokat Bld Plevnespor or draw	75%	–	–
Tokat Bld Plevnespor clean sheet	38%	–	–
Zonguldak Kömürspor clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 10.1 7.9 4.3 1 11.8 12.7 5.9 2.0 2 9.0 8.5 4.2 3 4.5 4.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tokat Bld Plevnespor down, Zonguldak Kömürspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,346 3. Lig - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Lig - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Tokat Bld Plevnespor at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Zonguldak Kömürspor away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Tokat Bld Plevnespor, 0.99 for Zonguldak Kömürspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 1

TOKAT BLD PLEVNESPOR

WWDDLW3–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–0

ZONGULDAK KÖMÜRSPOR

LLLDD2–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Fatsa Belediyespor	5	+8	11
2	Kartal Bulvarspor	5	+6	10
3	Pazarspor	5	+6	10
4	Galata	5	+4	9
5	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	5	+2	9
6	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	5	+2	8
7	Orduspor 1967	5	+1	8
8	Amasyaspor 1968	5	+1	8
9	Küçükçekmece Sinopspor	5	+1	8
10	Düzcespor	5	+1	7
11	Karabük İdman Yurdu	5	−3	7
12	Beykoz Anadolu	5	0	5
13	Gölcükspor	5	−2	4
14	Silivrispor	5	−4	4
15	İnkılapspor	5	−5	4
16	Yalova Yeşilovaspor	5	−7	4
17	Zonguldak Kömürspor	5	−4	2
18	Beykoz İshaklıspor	5	−7	1