Pazarspor v Tokat Bld Plevnespor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Pazarspor 1–0 Tokat Bld Plevnespor PAZARSPOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pazarspor win~~48%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.408

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.351

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pazarspor win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pazarspor 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
1′KICK-OFF Pazarspor v Tokat Bld Plevnespor
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Pazarspor win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pazarspor win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME Pazarspor 0–0 Tokat Bld Plevnespor
46′SECOND HALF Pazarspor 0–0 Tokat Bld Plevnespor
47′We said Pazarspor at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–43–21
52′We said Pazarspor at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–20
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 33–48–19
61′We said Pazarspor at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–18
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Pazarspor win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
69′We said Pazarspor at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
75′We said Pazarspor at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–12
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Pazarspor win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
80′We said Pazarspor at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–9
84′We said Pazarspor at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–6
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Pazarspor win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
91′We said Pazarspor at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–3
95′Pazarspor score on 90′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0
95′We said Pazarspor at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 1–0 · 99–1–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Pazarspor 1–0 Tokat Bld Plevnespor
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Pazarspor win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Pazarspor win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
FTFULL TIME Pazarspor 1–0 Tokat Bld Plevnespor
FTPazarspor 1–0 Tokat Bld Plevnespor · Pazarspor win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pazarspor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pazarspor 48%, draw 28%, Tokat Bld Plevnespor 24%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Pazarspor v Tokat Bld PlevnesporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pazarspor win48%

Draw28%

Tokat Bld Plevnespor win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

Round3. Lig Group 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pazarspor

Tokat Bld Plevnespor

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Pazarspor	6	+7	13
9	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	6	+1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pazarspor winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market52%

Us48%

~~Market~~52%

We make Pazarspor a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pazarspor v Tokat Bld Plevnespor~~1.48 – 0.96

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~2 v 9

~~The market · Pazarspor win~~52% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pazarspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pazarspor win	48%	52%	−4
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Tokat Bld Plevnespor win	24%	23%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	51%	−7
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	30%	−7
Pazarspor or draw	76%	77%	−1
Pazarspor clean sheet	39%	–	–
Tokat Bld Plevnespor clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 10.3 7.8 4.1 1 12.1 12.7 5.7 2 9.3 8.6 4.1 3 4.7 4.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pazarspor down, Tokat Bld Plevnespor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,358 3. Lig - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pazarspor at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Tokat Bld Plevnespor away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Pazarspor, 0.96 for Tokat Bld Plevnespor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PAZ 0–0 TOK · TOK 1–2 PAZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

PAZARSPOR

DWWLWW0–0 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–1

TOKAT BLD PLEVNESPOR

WDDLWL3–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Fatsa Belediyespor	7	+10	17
2	Pazarspor	6	+7	13
3	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	7	+3	13
4	Kartal Bulvarspor	6	+6	11
5	Amasyaspor 1968	6	+2	11
6	Galata	7	+3	10
7	Karabük İdman Yurdu	6	+1	10
8	Orduspor 1967	7	0	9
9	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	6	+1	8
10	Küçükçekmece Sinopspor	6	−3	8
11	İnkılapspor	7	−4	8
12	Düzcespor	6	0	7
13	Gölcükspor	7	−2	6
14	Beykoz Anadolu	6	−1	5
15	Zonguldak Kömürspor	6	−3	5
16	Yalova Yeşilovaspor	6	−7	5
17	Silivrispor	6	−5	4
18	Beykoz İshaklıspor	6	−8	1