Orduspor 1967 v Karadeniz Ereğli BSK prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Orduspor 1967 1–2 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK ORDUSPOR 1967 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Orduspor 1967 win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orduspor 1967 win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Orduspor 1967 was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–32–30
1′KICK-OFF Orduspor 1967 v Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
11′A goal for Karadeniz Ereğli BSK on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–22–63
11′We said Orduspor 1967 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–22–63
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Orduspor 1967 0–1 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Orduspor 1967 win: 39% at kick-off, 15% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Orduspor 1967 win 15%)
14′We said Orduspor 1967 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–63
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 11–23–66
38′We said Orduspor 1967 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Orduspor 1967 win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
43′Orduspor 1967 score on 42′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 31–45–25
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Orduspor 1967 1–1 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Orduspor 1967 win: 39% at kick-off, 31% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win 25%)
45′HALF-TIME Orduspor 1967 1–2 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
46′SECOND HALF Orduspor 1967 1–2 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
48′Karadeniz Ereğli BSK find the net on 45′. 1–2. 1–2 · 7–22–71
48′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 7–22–71
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Orduspor 1967 1–2 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Orduspor 1967 win: 39% at kick-off, 7% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
60′We said Orduspor 1967 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
FTFULL TIME Orduspor 1967 1–2 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
FTOrduspor 1967 1–2 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK · Orduspor 1967 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Orduspor 1967 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Orduspor 1967 39%, draw 31%, Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 30%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Orduspor 1967 v Karadeniz Ereğli BSKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Orduspor 1967 win39%

Draw31%

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

Round3. Lig Group 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orduspor 1967

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 1

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	6	+2	10
8	Orduspor 1967	6	+1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · orduspor 1967 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Orduspor 1967 a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Orduspor 1967 v Karadeniz Ereğli BSK~~1.14 – 0.97

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~8 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Orduspor 1967 win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orduspor 1967 win	39%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Orduspor 1967 or draw	70%	–	–
Orduspor 1967 clean sheet	39%	–	–
Karadeniz Ereğli BSK clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 13.7%

0123450 13.7 11.0 5.7 1 13.0 13.7 6.2 2.1 2 7.8 7.2 3.5 3 3.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orduspor 1967 down, Karadeniz Ereğli BSK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,355 3. Lig - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orduspor 1967 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Karadeniz Ereğli BSK away: 0.33 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Orduspor 1967, 0.97 for Karadeniz Ereğli BSK. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ORD 4–1 KAR · KAR 5–3 ORD · ORD 1–0 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

ORDUSPOR 1967

DDWWLD2–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–2

KARADENIZ EREĞLI BSK

DWDWDD1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Fatsa Belediyespor	6	+9	14
2	Pazarspor	6	+7	13
3	Kartal Bulvarspor	6	+6	11
4	Amasyaspor 1968	6	+2	11
5	Galata	6	+4	10
6	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	6	+2	10
7	Karabük İdman Yurdu	6	+1	10
8	Orduspor 1967	6	+1	9
9	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	6	+1	8
10	Küçükçekmece Sinopspor	6	−3	8
11	Düzcespor	6	0	7
12	İnkılapspor	6	−4	7
13	Beykoz Anadolu	6	−1	5
14	Gölcükspor	6	−2	5
15	Zonguldak Kömürspor	6	−3	5
16	Yalova Yeşilovaspor	6	−7	5
17	Silivrispor	6	−5	4
18	Beykoz İshaklıspor	6	−8	1