Karadeniz Ereğli BSK v Beykoz Anadolu

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win at 40%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Karadeniz Ereğli BSK was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–34–26
3. 1′KICK-OFF Karadeniz Ereğli BSK v Beykoz Anadolu
4. 26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win 38%)
5. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
6. 45′HALF-TIME Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 0–0 Beykoz Anadolu
7. 46′SECOND HALF Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 0–0 Beykoz Anadolu
8. 49′We said Karadeniz Ereğli BSK at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–52–20
9. 58′We said Karadeniz Ereğli BSK at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–17
10. 63′Karadeniz Ereğli BSK score on 63′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
11. 63′We published Karadeniz Ereğli BSK at 40%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
12. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 1–0 Beykoz Anadolu
13. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win: 40% at kick-off, 84% now
14. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 62%)
15. 64′We published Karadeniz Ereğli BSK at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
16. 65′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 85–13–2
17. 75′We published Karadeniz Ereğli BSK at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
18. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
19. 83′We published Karadeniz Ereğli BSK at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
20. 88′Beykoz Anadolu find the net on 87′. 1–1. 1–1 · 4–92–3
21. 88′We said Karadeniz Ereğli BSK at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
22. 88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 1–1 Beykoz Anadolu
23. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win: 40% at kick-off, 4% now
24. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win 96%)
25. 89′A red card for Beykoz Anadolu on 88′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 4–93–3
26. 89′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Beykoz Anadolu
27. 91′A goal for Beykoz Anadolu on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–3–97
28. 91′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–3–97
29. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 1–2 Beykoz Anadolu
30. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
31. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Beykoz Anadolu win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 94%)
32. 93′Beykoz Anadolu are down to nine from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 0–2–98
33. 93′Karadeniz Ereğli BSK have ten men and Beykoz Anadolu nine after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 0–2–98
34. 93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+3' Beykoz Anadolu
35. 93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+3' Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
36. 99′Beykoz Anadolu score on 90′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
37. 99′⚽ GOAL · 90+9' Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 1–3 Beykoz Anadolu
38. FTFULL TIME Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 1–3 Beykoz Anadolu
39. FTKaradeniz Ereğli BSK 1–3 Beykoz Anadolu · Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.