Karabük İdman Yurdu v Silivrispor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Karabük İdman Yurdu 1–0 Silivrispor KARABÜK İDMAN YURDU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Karabük İdman Yurdu win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.532

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karabük İdman Yurdu win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Karabük İdman Yurdu was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
1′KICK-OFF Karabük İdman Yurdu v Silivrispor
18′Karabük İdman Yurdu score on 18′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–12
18′We published Karabük İdman Yurdu at 40%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–19–12
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Karabük İdman Yurdu 1–0 Silivrispor
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Karabük İdman Yurdu win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
21′We published Karabük İdman Yurdu at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–11
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Karabük İdman Yurdu win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 71–20–10
45′HALF-TIME Karabük İdman Yurdu 1–0 Silivrispor
46′SECOND HALF Karabük İdman Yurdu 1–0 Silivrispor
51′We published Karabük İdman Yurdu at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
66′We published Karabük İdman Yurdu at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Karabük İdman Yurdu win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
74′We published Karabük İdman Yurdu at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
81′We published Karabük İdman Yurdu at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Karabük İdman Yurdu win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
87′We published Karabük İdman Yurdu at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Karabük İdman Yurdu 1–0 Silivrispor
FTKarabük İdman Yurdu 1–0 Silivrispor · Karabük İdman Yurdu win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karabük İdman Yurdu are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karabük İdman Yurdu 40%, draw 28%, Silivrispor 32%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Karabük İdman Yurdu v SilivrisporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Karabük İdman Yurdu win40%

Draw28%

Silivrispor win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

Round3. Lig Group 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karabük İdman Yurdu

Silivrispor

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Karabük İdman Yurdu	6	+1	10
17	Silivrispor	6	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karabük i̇dman yurdu winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Karabük İdman Yurdu a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karabük İdman Yurdu v Silivrispor~~1.40 – 1.21

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 4~~7 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karabük İdman Yurdu win	40%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Silivrispor win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Karabük İdman Yurdu or draw	68%	–	–
Karabük İdman Yurdu clean sheet	31%	–	–
Silivrispor clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.9 8.3 5.5 2.3 1 9.6 12.8 7.1 3.0 2 7.1 8.2 4.9 2.0 3 3.4 3.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karabük İdman Yurdu down, Silivrispor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,358 3. Lig - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Karabük İdman Yurdu at home: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Silivrispor away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Karabük İdman Yurdu, 1.21 for Silivrispor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

KARABÜK İDMAN YURDU

LWDWLW1–5 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 4–0

SILIVRISPOR

WLLLDL2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Fatsa Belediyespor	7	+10	17
2	Pazarspor	7	+8	16
3	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	7	+3	13
4	Kartal Bulvarspor	7	+6	12
5	Amasyaspor 1968	7	+2	12
6	Galata	7	+3	10
7	Karabük İdman Yurdu	6	+1	10
8	Orduspor 1967	7	0	9
9	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	7	0	8
10	Zonguldak Kömürspor	7	−2	8
11	Küçükçekmece Sinopspor	6	−3	8
12	İnkılapspor	7	−4	8
13	Düzcespor	6	0	7
14	Beykoz Anadolu	7	−1	6
15	Gölcükspor	7	−2	6
16	Yalova Yeşilovaspor	7	−7	6
17	Silivrispor	6	−5	4
18	Beykoz İshaklıspor	7	−9	1