İnkılapspor v Gölcükspor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

İnkılapspor 1–1 Gölcükspor GÖLCÜKSPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Gölcükspor win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.749

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gölcükspor win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gölcükspor 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 34–30–36
1′KICK-OFF İnkılapspor v Gölcükspor
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Gölcükspor win 32%)
45′A goal for İnkılapspor on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–21–8
45′We said Gölcükspor at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 71–21–8
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 71–21–8
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' İnkılapspor 1–0 Gölcükspor
45′HALF-TIME İnkılapspor 1–0 Gölcükspor
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gölcükspor win: 36% at kick-off, 8% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' İnkılapspor win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 21%)
46′SECOND HALF İnkılapspor 1–0 Gölcükspor
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Gölcükspor win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
61′We said Gölcükspor at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
72′Gölcükspor score on 72′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 17–66–17
72′We said Gölcükspor at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 17–66–17
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' İnkılapspor 1–1 Gölcükspor
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Gölcükspor win: 36% at kick-off, 17% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was İnkılapspor win 17%)
77′We said Gölcükspor at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–73–14
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Gölcükspor win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
FTFULL TIME İnkılapspor 1–1 Gölcükspor
FTİnkılapspor 1–1 Gölcükspor · Gölcükspor win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Gölcükspor just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: İnkılapspor 34%, draw 29%, Gölcükspor 36%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on İnkılapspor v GölcüksporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

İnkılapspor win34%

Draw29%

Gölcükspor win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

Round3. Lig Group 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

İnkılapspor

Gölcükspor

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	İnkılapspor	6	−4	7
14	Gölcükspor	6	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gölcükspor winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Gölcükspor a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · İnkılapspor v Gölcükspor~~1.17 – 1.21

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 5~~12 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gölcükspor win

Published at 37%, 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
İnkılapspor win	34%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Gölcükspor win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
İnkılapspor or draw	64%	–	–
İnkılapspor clean sheet	31%	–	–
Gölcükspor clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.7 10.5 6.8 2.8 1 10.1 13.4 7.6 3.1 2 6.3 7.3 4.4 3 2.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+İnkılapspor down, Gölcükspor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,355 3. Lig - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

İnkılapspor at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gölcükspor away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for İnkılapspor, 1.21 for Gölcükspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

İNKILAPSPOR

WLLDLW3–2 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–2

GÖLCÜKSPOR

LWDLLD0–1 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Fatsa Belediyespor	6	+9	14
2	Pazarspor	6	+7	13
3	Kartal Bulvarspor	6	+6	11
4	Amasyaspor 1968	6	+2	11
5	Galata	6	+4	10
6	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	6	+2	10
7	Karabük İdman Yurdu	6	+1	10
8	Orduspor 1967	6	+1	9
9	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	6	+1	8
10	Küçükçekmece Sinopspor	6	−3	8
11	Düzcespor	6	0	7
12	İnkılapspor	6	−4	7
13	Beykoz Anadolu	6	−1	5
14	Gölcükspor	6	−2	5
15	Zonguldak Kömürspor	6	−3	5
16	Yalova Yeşilovaspor	6	−7	5
17	Silivrispor	6	−5	4
18	Beykoz İshaklıspor	6	−8	1