Gölcükspor v Galata prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Gölcükspor 1–1 Galata GÖLCÜKSPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Gölcükspor win~~36%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.738

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.743

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gölcükspor win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gölcükspor 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–35
1′KICK-OFF Gölcükspor v Galata
4′Little has changed for our model: Gölcükspor 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–35
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Gölcükspor 0–1 Galata
22′A. Cesmebasi scores for Galata on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–66
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Gölcükspor win: 36% at kick-off, 12% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Galata win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Gölcükspor win 12%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Gölcükspor win: 36% at kick-off, 36% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Gölcükspor win: 36% at kick-off, 12% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Gölcükspor win: 36% at kick-off, 36% now
24′A. Cesmebasi scores for Galata on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–67
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Gölcükspor win: 36% at kick-off, 36% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Gölcükspor win: 36% at kick-off, 12% now
43′We said Gölcükspor at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–22–71
44′We said Gölcükspor at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–22–71
45′HALF-TIME Gölcükspor 0–1 Galata
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gölcükspor win: 36% at kick-off, 7% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Galata win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Gölcükspor win 7%)
46′SECOND HALF Gölcükspor 0–1 Galata
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Gölcükspor 1–1 Galata
78′⚽ GOAL · 12' Gölcükspor 1–1 Galata · A. Cesmebasi
78′⚽ GOAL · 64' Gölcükspor 1–1 Galata · O. Yuksel (assist U. Dogdu)
FTFULL TIME Gölcükspor 1–1 Galata
FTGölcükspor 1–1 Galata · Gölcükspor win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gölcükspor win36%

Draw30%

Galata win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gölcükspor

Galata

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Galata	5	+4	9
13	Gölcükspor	5	−2	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gölcükspor winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

36% The market33%

Us36%

~~Market~~33%

We make Gölcükspor a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gölcükspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gölcükspor win	36%	33%	+3
Draw	30%	30%	0
Galata win	35%	38%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	40%	41%	−1
Both teams to score	47%	48%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	67%	66%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	23%	−2
Gölcükspor or draw	65%	62%	+3
Gölcükspor clean sheet	33%	–	–
Galata clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.4 10.6 6.5 2.6 1 10.7 13.6 7.2 2.8 2 6.7 7.3 4.2 3 2.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gölcükspor down, Galata across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,346 3. Lig - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Lig - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Gölcükspor at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). Galata away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Gölcükspor, 1.15 for Galata. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 1

GÖLCÜKSPOR

LWDLL0–1 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 0–2

GALATA

LDDDWW1–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Fatsa Belediyespor	5	+8	11
2	Kartal Bulvarspor	5	+6	10
3	Pazarspor	5	+6	10
4	Galata	5	+4	9
5	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	5	+2	9
6	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	5	+2	8
7	Orduspor 1967	5	+1	8
8	Amasyaspor 1968	5	+1	8
9	Küçükçekmece Sinopspor	5	+1	8
10	Düzcespor	5	+1	7
11	Karabük İdman Yurdu	5	−3	7
12	Beykoz Anadolu	5	0	5
13	Gölcükspor	5	−2	4
14	Silivrispor	5	−4	4
15	İnkılapspor	5	−5	4
16	Yalova Yeşilovaspor	5	−7	4
17	Zonguldak Kömürspor	5	−4	2
18	Beykoz İshaklıspor	5	−7	1