Galata v Fatsa Belediyespor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Galata 1–2 Fatsa Belediyespor FATSA BELEDIYESPOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fatsa Belediyespor win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.503

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fatsa Belediyespor win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fatsa Belediyespor was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 27–31–42
1′KICK-OFF Galata v Fatsa Belediyespor
29′Fatsa Belediyespor find the net on 28′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–18–75
29′We published Fatsa Belediyespor at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 7–18–75
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Galata 0–1 Fatsa Belediyespor
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Fatsa Belediyespor win: 42% at kick-off, 75% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 7–18–75
45′HALF-TIME Galata 0–1 Fatsa Belediyespor
46′SECOND HALF Galata 0–1 Fatsa Belediyespor
54′We published Fatsa Belediyespor at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Fatsa Belediyespor win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
63′A goal for Fatsa Belediyespor on 63′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Galata 0–2 Fatsa Belediyespor
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Fatsa Belediyespor win: 42% at kick-off, 98% now
64′We published Fatsa Belediyespor at 42%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
67′Galata score on 66′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
67′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–14–84
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Galata 1–2 Fatsa Belediyespor
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Fatsa Belediyespor win: 42% at kick-off, 84% now
68′We published Fatsa Belediyespor at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
77′We published Fatsa Belediyespor at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Fatsa Belediyespor win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
FTFULL TIME Galata 1–2 Fatsa Belediyespor
FTGalata 1–2 Fatsa Belediyespor · Fatsa Belediyespor win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fatsa Belediyespor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Galata 27%, draw 31%, Fatsa Belediyespor 42%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Galata v Fatsa BelediyesporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Galata win27%

Draw31%

Fatsa Belediyespor win42%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

Round3. Lig Group 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Galata

Fatsa Belediyespor

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 1

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fatsa belediyespor winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Fatsa Belediyespor a 42% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.2, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Galata v Fatsa Belediyespor~~0.92 – 1.23

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 14~~5 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fatsa Belediyespor win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Galata win	27%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Fatsa Belediyespor win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Galata or draw	58%	–	–
Galata clean sheet	31%	–	–
Fatsa Belediyespor clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 13.5%

0123450 13.5 13.5 8.7 3.7 1 10.0 13.2 7.4 3.1 2 5.0 5.8 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Galata down, Fatsa Belediyespor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,355 3. Lig - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Galata at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fatsa Belediyespor away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Galata, 1.23 for Fatsa Belediyespor. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

GALATA

DDDWWD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

FATSA BELEDIYESPOR

DDWWWW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Fatsa Belediyespor	6	+9	14
2	Pazarspor	6	+7	13
3	Kartal Bulvarspor	6	+6	11
4	Amasyaspor 1968	6	+2	11
5	Galata	6	+4	10
6	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	6	+2	10
7	Karabük İdman Yurdu	6	+1	10
8	Orduspor 1967	6	+1	9
9	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	6	+1	8
10	Küçükçekmece Sinopspor	6	−3	8
11	Düzcespor	6	0	7
12	İnkılapspor	6	−4	7
13	Beykoz Anadolu	6	−1	5
14	Gölcükspor	6	−2	5
15	Zonguldak Kömürspor	6	−3	5
16	Yalova Yeşilovaspor	6	−7	5
17	Silivrispor	6	−5	4
18	Beykoz İshaklıspor	6	−8	1