Fatsa Belediyespor v İnkılapspor prediction · 3. Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fatsa BelediyesporDrawİnkılapspor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Fatsa Belediyespor 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fatsa Belediyespor are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fatsa Belediyespor 63%, draw 24%, İnkılapspor 14%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Fatsa Belediyespor v İnkılapsporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Fatsa Belediyespor win63%

Draw24%

İnkılapspor win14%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

Round3. Lig Group 1 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fatsa Belediyespor

İnkılapspor

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fatsa belediyespor winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Fatsa Belediyespor a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fatsa Belediyespor v İnkılapspor~~1.85 – 0.69

~~Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 8~~1 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fatsa Belediyespor win	63%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
İnkılapspor win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Fatsa Belediyespor or draw	86%	–	–
Fatsa Belediyespor clean sheet	51%	–	–
İnkılapspor clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 9.6 5.1 2.1 1 13.9 10.5 3.5 2 12.8 8.4 3.0 3 8.0 5.1 4 4.0 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fatsa Belediyespor down, İnkılapspor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,371 3. Lig - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Fatsa Belediyespor at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). İnkılapspor away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Fatsa Belediyespor, 0.69 for İnkılapspor. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

FATSA BELEDIYESPOR

DWWWWW1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

İNKILAPSPOR

LLDLWD1–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Fatsa Belediyespor	7	+10	17
2	Pazarspor	8	+8	17
3	Küçükçekmece Sinopspor	8	+2	14
4	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	8	+1	13
5	Karabük İdman Yurdu	8	−1	13
6	Kartal Bulvarspor	7	+6	12
7	Orduspor 1967	8	+3	12
8	Amasyaspor 1968	8	−1	12
9	Galata	7	+3	10
10	Düzcespor	8	+2	10
11	Beykoz Anadolu	8	+1	9
12	Zonguldak Kömürspor	8	−2	9
13	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	8	−4	8
14	İnkılapspor	7	−4	8
15	Gölcükspor	8	−2	7
16	Silivrispor	8	−4	7
17	Yalova Yeşilovaspor	8	−9	6
18	Beykoz İshaklıspor	8	−9	2