Düzcespor v Pazarspor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Düzcespor 1–2 Pazarspor DÜZCESPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Düzcespor win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.714

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Düzcespor win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Düzcespor v Pazarspor
3′Little has changed for our model: Düzcespor 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
4′Little has changed for our model: Düzcespor 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Düzcespor 0–1 Pazarspor
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Düzcespor 0–1 Pazarspor
24′16′ and it is 0–1: A. Kurtulus on the scoresheet for Pazarspor. 0–1 · 13–23–64
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Düzcespor win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Pazarspor win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Düzcespor win 13%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Düzcespor win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Düzcespor win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Pazarspor win 32%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Düzcespor win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Pazarspor win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Düzcespor win 13%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Düzcespor win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Düzcespor win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Pazarspor win 32%)
26′16′ and it is 0–1: A. Kurtulus on the scoresheet for Pazarspor. 0–1 · 12–23–64
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Düzcespor win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Pazarspor win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Düzcespor win 13%)
45′We said Düzcespor at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–23–69
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Düzcespor win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Düzcespor win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
45′HALF-TIME Düzcespor 0–1 Pazarspor
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Pazarspor win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Düzcespor win 8%)
46′SECOND HALF Düzcespor 0–1 Pazarspor
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Düzcespor 1–1 Pazarspor
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Düzcespor 1–2 Pazarspor
FTFULL TIME Düzcespor 1–2 Pazarspor
FTDüzcespor 1–2 Pazarspor · Düzcespor win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Düzcespor win39%

Draw30%

Pazarspor win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Düzcespor

Pazarspor

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Pazarspor	5	+6	10
10	Düzcespor	5	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · düzcespor winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Düzcespor a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Düzcespor win	39%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Pazarspor win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Düzcespor or draw	69%	–	–
Düzcespor clean sheet	36%	–	–
Pazarspor clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 12.2 10.2 5.8 2.1 1 11.8 13.5 6.6 2.4 2 7.6 7.5 3.9 3 3.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Düzcespor down, Pazarspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,346 3. Lig - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Lig - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Düzcespor at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pazarspor away: 1.00 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Düzcespor, 1.05 for Pazarspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 1

DÜZCESPOR

DDWDDD2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

PAZARSPOR

DWWLW0–0 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Fatsa Belediyespor	5	+8	11
2	Kartal Bulvarspor	5	+6	10
3	Pazarspor	5	+6	10
4	Galata	5	+4	9
5	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	5	+2	9
6	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	5	+2	8
7	Orduspor 1967	5	+1	8
8	Amasyaspor 1968	5	+1	8
9	Küçükçekmece Sinopspor	5	+1	8
10	Düzcespor	5	+1	7
11	Karabük İdman Yurdu	5	−3	7
12	Beykoz Anadolu	5	0	5
13	Gölcükspor	5	−2	4
14	Silivrispor	5	−4	4
15	İnkılapspor	5	−5	4
16	Yalova Yeşilovaspor	5	−7	4
17	Zonguldak Kömürspor	5	−4	2
18	Beykoz İshaklıspor	5	−7	1