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Model 1.2

Home › Football › 3. Lig - Group 1 › Düzcespor v Karabük İdman Yurdu

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Düzcespor v Karabük İdman Yurdu

Düzcespor
4–1Full time
Karabük İdman Yurdu

3. Lig - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
Düzcespor 4–1 Karabük İdman Yurdu DÜZCESPOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Düzcespor win44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.472

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Düzcespor win at 44%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Düzcespor 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Düzcespor v Karabük İdman Yurdu
  4. 2′Düzcespor score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–11
  5. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Düzcespor 1–0 Karabük İdman Yurdu
  6. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Düzcespor win: 44% at kick-off, 73% now
  7. 3′We said Düzcespor at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–11
  8. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Düzcespor win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
  10. 32′We said Düzcespor at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Düzcespor 1–0 Karabük İdman Yurdu
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Düzcespor 1–0 Karabük İdman Yurdu
  13. 58′We said Düzcespor at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
  14. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Düzcespor win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
  15. 69′Düzcespor find the net on 69′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  16. 69′We said Düzcespor at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  17. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Düzcespor 2–0 Karabük İdman Yurdu
  18. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Düzcespor win: 44% at kick-off, 98% now
  19. 70′Düzcespor ahead on 68′ through H. Akgul. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  20. 75′A goal for Karabük İdman Yurdu on 75′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
  21. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Düzcespor 2–1 Karabük İdman Yurdu
  22. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Düzcespor win: 44% at kick-off, 87% now
  23. 76′We said Düzcespor at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
  24. 76′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 88–11–1
  25. 78′H. Turkyilmaz scores for Karabük İdman Yurdu on 74′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 89–10–1
  26. 79′Düzcespor score on 78′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  27. 79′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  28. 79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Düzcespor 3–1 Karabük İdman Yurdu
  29. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Düzcespor win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
  30. 81′We said Düzcespor at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  31. 87′Düzcespor find the net on 87′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  32. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Düzcespor 4–1 Karabük İdman Yurdu
  33. 88′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  34. FTFULL TIME Düzcespor 4–1 Karabük İdman Yurdu
  35. FTDüzcespor 4–1 Karabük İdman Yurdu · Düzcespor win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Düzcespor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Düzcespor 44%, draw 29%, Karabük İdman Yurdu 27%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Düzcespor v Karabük İdman YurduBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Düzcespor win44%
Draw29%
Karabük İdman Yurdu win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

Round3. Lig Group 1 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Düzcespor

Karabük İdman Yurdu

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 1

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Karabük İdman Yurdu7+213
13Düzcespor7−17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · düzcespor winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
44% The market–
Us44%

We make Düzcespor a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Düzcespor v Karabük İdman Yurdu1.39 – 1.03
Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 12 SeptW1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 7 v 1313 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:24
Our probability · Düzcespor win

Published at 46%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Düzcespor win44%––
Draw29%––
Karabük İdman Yurdu win27%––
Over 2.5 goals43%––
Both teams to score47%––
Over 1.5 goals69%––
Over 3.5 goals23%––
Düzcespor or draw73%––
Düzcespor clean sheet37%––
Karabük İdman Yurdu clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 10.6 8.5 4.8 1 11.6 13.0 6.3 2.3 2 8.4 8.2 4.2 3 4.0 3.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Düzcespor down, Karabük İdman Yurdu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsKAR 1–0 DUZ · DUZ 4–2 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

DÜZCESPOR

WDDDLL1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

KARABÜK İDMAN YURDU

WDWLWW2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Fatsa Belediyespor7+1017
2Pazarspor7+816
3Karadeniz Ereğli BSK7+313
4Karabük İdman Yurdu7+213
5Kartal Bulvarspor7+612
6Amasyaspor 19687+212
7Küçükçekmece Sinopspor7−211
8Galata7+310
9Orduspor 1967709
10Tokat Bld Plevnespor708
11Zonguldak Kömürspor7−28
12İnkılapspor7−48
13Düzcespor7−17
14Beykoz Anadolu7−16
15Gölcükspor7−26
16Yalova Yeşilovaspor7−76
17Silivrispor7−64
18Beykoz İshaklıspor7−91

The competition's standings before kick-off.