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Somaspor v Aliağa FAŞ

Somaspor
1–2Full time
Aliağa FAŞ

2. Lig · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31
Somaspor 1–2 Aliağa FAŞ ALIAĞA FAŞ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Aliağa FAŞ win59%
The market said66%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.252
The market’s Brier score0.175

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Aliağa FAŞ win at 59%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Aliağa FAŞ 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 20–21–59
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Somaspor v Aliağa FAŞ
  4. 10′A goal for Aliağa FAŞ on 9′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–13–79
  5. 10′We said Aliağa FAŞ at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 8–13–79
  6. 10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Somaspor 0–1 Aliağa FAŞ
  7. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Aliağa FAŞ win: 59% at kick-off, 79% now
  8. 19′Aliağa FAŞ score on 19′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–5–93
  9. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Somaspor 0–2 Aliağa FAŞ
  10. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Aliağa FAŞ win: 59% at kick-off, 93% now
  11. 20′We said Aliağa FAŞ at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 0–2 · 2–5–93
  12. 23′Somaspor find the net on 23′. 1–2. 1–2 · 7–14–79
  13. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Somaspor 1–2 Aliağa FAŞ
  14. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Aliağa FAŞ win: 59% at kick-off, 79% now
  15. 38′We said Aliağa FAŞ at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 6–15–80
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Somaspor 1–2 Aliağa FAŞ
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Somaspor 1–2 Aliağa FAŞ
  18. 69′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–2 · 2–13–84
  19. 71′We said Aliağa FAŞ at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
  20. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Aliağa FAŞ win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
  21. 88′We said Aliağa FAŞ at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  22. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Aliağa FAŞ win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
  23. FTFULL TIME Somaspor 1–2 Aliağa FAŞ
  24. FTSomaspor 1–2 Aliağa FAŞ · Aliağa FAŞ win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aliağa FAŞ are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Somaspor 20%, draw 21%, Aliağa FAŞ 59%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Somaspor v Aliağa FAŞBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Somaspor win20%
Draw21%
Aliağa FAŞ win59%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

Round2. Lig White Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Somaspor

Aliağa FAŞ

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27 · White Group

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Aliağa FAŞ6+415
12Somaspor5−27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aliağa faş winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
59% The market66%
Us59%
Market66%

We make Aliağa FAŞ a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Somaspor v Aliağa FAŞ1.19 – 2.20
Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 SeptW2 D1 L2 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 7 v 1512 v 4
The market · Aliağa FAŞ win66% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 12 OCT 04:0618 OCT 16:32
Our probability · Aliağa FAŞ win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Somaspor win20%14%+6
Draw21%20%+1
Aliağa FAŞ win59%66%−7
Over 2.5 goals64%62%+2
Both teams to score60%55%+5
Over 1.5 goals84%82%+2
Over 3.5 goals43%42%+1
Somaspor or draw41%34%+7
Somaspor clean sheet12%––
Aliağa FAŞ clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%
0123450 4.2 7.6 8.1 5.8 3.3 1 4.2 9.1 9.1 6.5 3.6 2 2.6 5.2 5.3 3.8 2.1 3 2.1 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Somaspor down, Aliağa FAŞ across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting4.50
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsALI 3–3 SOM · SOM 0–3 ALI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

SOMASPOR

DWLWL3–3 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–3

ALIAĞA FAŞ

WWLWWW4–1 · 2–0 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · White Group
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Elazığspor7+1416
2Muş Sport Klübü6+916
3Güzide Gebzespor7+515
4Aliağa FAŞ6+415
5Çorluspor 19477+613
6İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik7+413
7Şanlıurfaspor7+312
8Isparta 32 Spor7+111
968 Aksaray Belediyespor7+39
10Menemen FK7−29
11Erbaaspor7−17
12Somaspor5−27
13Ankaraspor6−46
14Kastamonuspor7−104
15Sebat Gençlikspor6−52
16Arnavutköy Belediyespor7−130
17Hatayspor7−7–
18Adana Demirspor7−5–

The competition's standings before kick-off.