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Serik Spor v Kütahyaspor

Serik Spor
0–2Full time
Kütahyaspor

2. Lig · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
Serik Spor 0–2 Kütahyaspor SERIK SPOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Serik Spor win58%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.001
The market’s Brier score0.662

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Serik Spor win at 58%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Serik Spor was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–21–21
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Serik Spor v Kütahyaspor
  4. 38′Kütahyaspor score on 38′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 23–26–51
  5. 38′We said Serik Spor at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–26–51
  6. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Serik Spor 0–1 Kütahyaspor
  7. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Serik Spor win: 58% at kick-off, 23% now
  8. 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Kütahyaspor win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Serik Spor win 49%)
  9. 40′37′: M. Yigit on the scoresheet for Kütahyaspor, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 22–26–52
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Serik Spor 0–1 Kütahyaspor
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Serik Spor 0–1 Kütahyaspor
  12. 47′We said Serik Spor at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–27–54
  13. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Serik Spor win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
  14. 57′We said Serik Spor at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–59
  15. 66′We said Serik Spor at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
  16. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Serik Spor win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
  17. 76′We said Serik Spor at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
  18. 81′Kütahyaspor find the net on 80′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  19. 81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Serik Spor 0–2 Kütahyaspor
  20. 82′Kütahyaspor ahead on 79′ through M. Yigit. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–98
  21. FTFULL TIME Serik Spor 0–2 Kütahyaspor
  22. FTSerik Spor 0–2 Kütahyaspor · Serik Spor win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Serik Spor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Serik Spor 58%, draw 21%, Kütahyaspor 21%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Serik Spor v KütahyasporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Serik Spor win58%
Draw21%
Kütahyaspor win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

Round2. Lig Red Group · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Serik Spor

Kütahyaspor

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27 · Red Group

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Serik Spor7−75
16Kütahyaspor7−94

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · serik spor winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
58% The market39%
Us58%
Market39%

We make Serik Spor a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Serik Spor v Kütahyaspor2.20 – 1.23
Form · last six in 2. Lig this season · since 13 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W0 D1 L5
Table places · points 5 v 413 v 16
The market · Serik Spor win39% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60%70% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:24
Our probability · Serik Spor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Serik Spor win58%39%+19
Draw21%27%−6
Kütahyaspor win21%34%−13
Over 2.5 goals65%57%+8
Both teams to score61%61%0
Over 1.5 goals84%79%+5
Over 3.5 goals44%36%+8
Serik Spor or draw79%66%+13
Serik Spor clean sheet31%––
Kütahyaspor clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%
0123450 4.2 4.2 2.7 1 7.4 9.0 5.3 2.2 2 7.8 9.0 5.4 2.3 3 5.6 6.4 3.8 4 3.1 3.6 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Serik Spor down, Kütahyaspor across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Lig this season · since 13 Sept

SERIK SPOR

WDLLLL2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–4

KÜTAHYASPOR

LLLLLD1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 1–5 · 2–2

The table

2026/27 · Red Group
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sakaryaspor7+1019
2Adana 01 FK7+616
3Yeni Orduspor7+915
4Ankara Demirspor7+713
524 Erzincanspor6+412
61461 Trabzon FK7+311
7 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor7+211
8Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı6+410
912 Bingölspor709
10Ankaragücü6+48
11Karacabey Belediyespor6−58
12Fethiyespor7−65
13Serik Spor7−75
14İnegölspor6−54
15Kırklarelispor6−54
16Kütahyaspor7−94
17İskenderunspor6−12–

The competition's standings before kick-off.