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Sebat Gençlikspor v 68 Aksaray Belediyespor

Sebat Gençlikspor

1–1Full time

68 Aksaray Belediyespor

2. Lig · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

Sebat Gençlikspor 1–1 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 68 AKSARAY BELEDIYESPOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.841

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Sebat Gençlikspor v 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
2′Much as we predicted: 68 Aksaray Belediyespor was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Sebat Gençlikspor 0–1 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Sebat Gençlikspor 1–1 68 Aksaray Belediyespor · Y. Dulger
22′19′ and it is 1–1: Y. Dulger on the scoresheet for Sebat Gençlikspor. 1–1 · 33–29–37
34′🟥 RED CARD · 33' 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
36′🟥 RED CARD · 33' I. Zehir · 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
42′A red card for 68 Aksaray Belediyespor on 33′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 30–36–34
45′HALF-TIME Sebat Gençlikspor 1–1 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
46′SECOND HALF Sebat Gençlikspor 1–1 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
64′We said 68 Aksaray Belediyespor at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 23–51–26
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win: 40% at kick-off, 26% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win 26%)
84′We said 68 Aksaray Belediyespor at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
FTFULL TIME Sebat Gençlikspor 1–1 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
FTSebat Gençlikspor 1–1 68 Aksaray Belediyespor · 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sebat Gençlikspor win35%

Draw25%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 68 aksaray belediyespor winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

40% The market–

Us40%

We make 68 Aksaray Belediyespor a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sebat Gençlikspor win	35%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
68 Aksaray Belediyespor win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Sebat Gençlikspor or draw	60%	–	–
Sebat Gençlikspor clean sheet	23%	–	–
68 Aksaray Belediyespor clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.5 8.1 6.3 3.2 1 7.5 11.5 8.2 4.2 2 5.4 7.6 5.6 2.8 3 2.6 3.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sebat Gençlikspor down, 68 Aksaray Belediyespor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,416 2. Lig matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sebat Gençlikspor at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). 68 Aksaray Belediyespor away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Sebat Gençlikspor, 1.51 for 68 Aksaray Belediyespor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 2. Lig

SEBAT GENÇLIKSPOR

LDLL1–3 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 0–1

68 AKSARAY BELEDIYESPOR

DDWDLL1–1 · 3–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	5	+9	15
2	Muş Sport Klübü	5	+8	13
3	Aliağa FAŞ	5	+3	12
4	Elazığspor	5	+8	10
5	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	4	+7	10
6	Çorluspor 1947	5	+6	10
7	Adana 01 FK	5	+1	10
8	Yeni Orduspor	5	+6	9
9	Güzide Gebzespor	5	+3	9
10	24 Erzincanspor	5	+2	9
11	Menemen FK	5	0	9
12	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	5	0	8
13	Ankaragücü	5	+4	7
14	1461 Trabzon FK	5	+2	7
15	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	5	+2	7
16	Erbaaspor	5	+1	7
17	Ankara Demirspor	5	+1	7
18	Somaspor	4	+1	7
19	Isparta 32 Spor	5	0	7
20	Karacabey Belediyespor	4	−1	7
21	Şanlıurfaspor	5	0	6
22	Ankaraspor	5	−3	6
23	Kastamonuspor	5	−9	6
24	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	5	+1	5
25	12 Bingölspor	5	−1	5
26	Serik Spor	5	−3	5
27	Kırklarelispor	4	−2	4
28	Hatayspor	5	−2	4
29	Fethiyespor	5	−5	4
30	Adana Demirspor	5	−6	4
31	Kütahyaspor	5	−5	3
32	Sebat Gençlikspor	4	−4	1
33	İnegölspor	4	−5	1
34	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	5	−9	0
35	İskenderunspor	4	−10	0