Şanlıurfaspor v Hatayspor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Şanlıurfaspor 4–2 Hatayspor ŞANLIURFASPOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Şanlıurfaspor win~~59%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.250

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.113

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Şanlıurfaspor win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Şanlıurfaspor was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–17
1′KICK-OFF Şanlıurfaspor v Hatayspor
19′Hatayspor find the net on 18′. 0–1. 0–1 · 28–26–45
19′We said Şanlıurfaspor at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–26–45
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Şanlıurfaspor 0–1 Hatayspor
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Şanlıurfaspor win: 59% at kick-off, 28% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Hatayspor win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Şanlıurfaspor win 28%)
29′We said Şanlıurfaspor at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–27–48
30′A goal for Şanlıurfaspor on 29′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 52–31–17
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Şanlıurfaspor 1–1 Hatayspor
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Şanlıurfaspor win: 59% at kick-off, 52% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Şanlıurfaspor win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Hatayspor win 17%)
35′Şanlıurfaspor score on 34′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 83–13–4
35′We published Şanlıurfaspor at 59%. Our model now makes it 83%. 2–1 · 83–13–4
35′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–13–4
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Şanlıurfaspor 2–1 Hatayspor
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Şanlıurfaspor win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
45′HALF-TIME Şanlıurfaspor 2–1 Hatayspor
46′SECOND HALF Şanlıurfaspor 2–1 Hatayspor
55′We published Şanlıurfaspor at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
67′Şanlıurfaspor find the net on 67′. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Şanlıurfaspor 3–1 Hatayspor
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Şanlıurfaspor win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
68′We published Şanlıurfaspor at 59%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
68′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
78′We published Şanlıurfaspor at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
93′A goal for Şanlıurfaspor on 90′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Şanlıurfaspor 4–1 Hatayspor
94′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Şanlıurfaspor 4–2 Hatayspor
FTŞanlıurfaspor 4–2 Hatayspor · Şanlıurfaspor win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Şanlıurfaspor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Şanlıurfaspor 59%, draw 23%, Hatayspor 17%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Şanlıurfaspor v HataysporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Şanlıurfaspor win59%

Draw23%

Hatayspor win17%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

Round2. Lig White Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Şanlıurfaspor

Hatayspor

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Şanlıurfaspor	6	+1	9
17	Hatayspor	6	−5	–

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · şanlıurfaspor winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

59% The market73%

Us59%

~~Market~~73%

We make Şanlıurfaspor a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Şanlıurfaspor v Hatayspor~~1.83 – 0.85

~~Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places~~8 v 17

~~The market · Şanlıurfaspor win~~73% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Şanlıurfaspor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Şanlıurfaspor win	59%	73%	−14
Draw	23%	18%	+5
Hatayspor win	17%	9%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Both teams to score	47%	44%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	36%	−8
Şanlıurfaspor or draw	83%	91%	−8
Şanlıurfaspor clean sheet	44%	–	–
Hatayspor clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 7.9 5.8 2.6 1 12.4 10.7 4.5 2 11.1 9.1 3.9 3 6.8 5.5 2.4 4 3.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Şanlıurfaspor down, Hatayspor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,433 2. Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Şanlıurfaspor at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hatayspor away: 0.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Şanlıurfaspor, 0.85 for Hatayspor. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

ŞANLIURFASPOR

WDDLDW1–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–2

HATAYSPOR

LDLWLL0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27 · White Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Muş Sport Klübü	6	+9	16
2	Aliağa FAŞ	6	+4	15
3	Elazığspor	6	+11	13
4	Güzide Gebzespor	6	+4	12
5	Çorluspor 1947	6	+5	10
6	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	6	+3	10
7	Isparta 32 Spor	6	+1	10
8	Şanlıurfaspor	6	+1	9
9	Menemen FK	6	−1	9
10	Erbaaspor	6	0	7
11	Somaspor	5	−2	7
12	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	6	+1	6
13	Ankaraspor	6	−4	6
14	Kastamonuspor	6	−10	3
15	Sebat Gençlikspor	5	−4	2
16	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	6	−10	0
17	Hatayspor	6	−5	–
18	Adana Demirspor	6	−3	–