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Sakaryaspor v İskenderunspor

Sakaryaspor

2–2Full time

İskenderunspor

2. Lig · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Sakaryaspor 2–2 İskenderunspor SAKARYASPOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sakaryaspor win~~70%

~~The market said~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.212

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.450

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sakaryaspor win at 70%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Sakaryaspor 70% before kick-off, 76% now. 0–0 · 76–15–10
3′Little has changed for our model: Sakaryaspor 70% before kick-off, 75% now. 0–0 · 75–15–10
44′O. Gur scores for İskenderunspor on 28′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 61–27–12
45′O. Gur scores for İskenderunspor on 28′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 60–27–12
45′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 1–1 · 60–27–12
47′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 1–1 · 59–29–12
67′We said Sakaryaspor at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–46–11
83′İskenderunspor find the net on 83′. 2–2. 2–2 · 18–76–6
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Sakaryaspor win: 70% at kick-off, 43% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Sakaryaspor win: 70% at kick-off, 18% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Sakaryaspor win: 70% at kick-off, 18% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Sakaryaspor win: 70% at kick-off, 43% now
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Sakaryaspor 3–2 İskenderunspor
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Sakaryaspor win: 70% at kick-off, 18% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Sakaryaspor win: 70% at kick-off, 43% now
90′İskenderunspor ahead on 83′ through H. Iclek. 2–2. 2–2 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Sakaryaspor win: 70% at kick-off, 18% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Sakaryaspor win: 70% at kick-off, 43% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Sakaryaspor win: 70% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Sakaryaspor 2–2 İskenderunspor
FTSakaryaspor 2–2 İskenderunspor · Sakaryaspor win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sakaryaspor win70%

Draw16%

İskenderunspor win13%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sakaryaspor

İskenderunspor

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sakaryaspor	5	+9	15
35	İskenderunspor	4	−10	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sakaryaspor winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

70% The market82%

Us70%

~~Market~~82%

We make Sakaryaspor a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sakaryaspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sakaryaspor win	70%	82%	−12
Draw	16%	12%	+4
İskenderunspor win	13%	6%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Both teams to score	53%	42%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	85%	86%	0
Over 3.5 goals	48%	48%	0
Sakaryaspor or draw	87%	94%	−7
Sakaryaspor clean sheet	41%	–	–
İskenderunspor clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 8.8%

0123450 3.9 3.3 1 7.5 7.4 3.6 2 8.8 7.8 3.8 3 7.3 6.1 2.9 4 5.2 4.1 5 3.5 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sakaryaspor down, İskenderunspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,424 2. Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sakaryaspor at home: 2.17 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). İskenderunspor away: 0.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.78 goals for Sakaryaspor, 0.93 for İskenderunspor. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 2. Lig

SAKARYASPOR

LWWWWW0–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 3–1

İSKENDERUNSPOR

LLLLLL0–1 · 1–4 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Muş Sport Klübü	6	+9	16
2	Sakaryaspor	5	+9	15
3	Aliağa FAŞ	6	+4	15
4	Elazığspor	5	+8	10
5	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	4	+7	10
6	Ankara Demirspor	6	+5	10
7	Çorluspor 1947	6	+5	10
8	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	6	+3	10
9	Adana 01 FK	5	+1	10
10	Isparta 32 Spor	6	+1	10
11	Yeni Orduspor	5	+6	9
12	Güzide Gebzespor	5	+3	9
13	24 Erzincanspor	5	+2	9
14	Şanlıurfaspor	6	+1	9
15	Menemen FK	6	−1	9
16	12 Bingölspor	6	0	8
17	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	6	−1	8
18	Ankaragücü	5	+4	7
19	1461 Trabzon FK	5	+2	7
20	Erbaaspor	5	+1	7
21	Somaspor	4	+1	7
22	Karacabey Belediyespor	4	−1	7
23	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	6	+1	6
24	Ankaraspor	6	−4	6
25	Kastamonuspor	6	−10	6
26	Serik Spor	5	−3	5
27	Kırklarelispor	4	−2	4
28	Hatayspor	5	−2	4
29	Fethiyespor	5	−5	4
30	Adana Demirspor	5	−6	4
31	Kütahyaspor	6	−9	3
32	Sebat Gençlikspor	5	−4	2
33	İnegölspor	4	−5	1
34	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	6	−10	0
35	İskenderunspor	4	−10	0