Sakaryaspor v 24 Erzincanspor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Sakaryaspor 1–3 24 Erzincanspor SAKARYASPOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sakaryaspor win~~58%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.999

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.962

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sakaryaspor win at 58%.
1′KICK-OFF Sakaryaspor v 24 Erzincanspor
2′Little has changed for our model: Sakaryaspor 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–21–21
3′A goal for 24 Erzincanspor on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 36–21–42
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Sakaryaspor 0–1 24 Erzincanspor
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Sakaryaspor win: 58% at kick-off, 36% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' 24 Erzincanspor win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Sakaryaspor win 58%)
4′We said Sakaryaspor at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–1 · 36–21–42
10′We said Sakaryaspor at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–22–44
11′Sakaryaspor score on 11′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 56–22–22
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Sakaryaspor 1–1 24 Erzincanspor
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Sakaryaspor win: 58% at kick-off, 56% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Sakaryaspor win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was 24 Erzincanspor win 44%)
24′We said Sakaryaspor at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–2 · 29–24–47
25′24 Erzincanspor find the net on 24′. 1–2. 1–2 · 29–24–47
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Sakaryaspor 1–2 24 Erzincanspor
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Sakaryaspor win: 58% at kick-off, 29% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' 24 Erzincanspor win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Sakaryaspor win 53%)
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Sakaryaspor win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
37′We said Sakaryaspor at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–26–50
45′HALF-TIME Sakaryaspor 1–2 24 Erzincanspor
46′SECOND HALF Sakaryaspor 1–2 24 Erzincanspor
48′We said Sakaryaspor at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–26–55
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Sakaryaspor win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
57′We said Sakaryaspor at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–27–59
68′We said Sakaryaspor at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–2 · 8–25–67
68′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–2 · 8–25–67
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Sakaryaspor win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
76′We said Sakaryaspor at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–75
94′A goal for 24 Erzincanspor on 90′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Sakaryaspor 1–3 24 Erzincanspor
FTFULL TIME Sakaryaspor 1–3 24 Erzincanspor
FTSakaryaspor 1–3 24 Erzincanspor · Sakaryaspor win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sakaryaspor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sakaryaspor 58%, draw 20%, 24 Erzincanspor 21%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Sakaryaspor v 24 ErzincansporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sakaryaspor win58%

Draw20%

24 Erzincanspor win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

Round2. Lig Red Group · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sakaryaspor

24 Erzincanspor

6Days since last match13

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sakaryaspor winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

58% The market53%

Us58%

~~Market~~53%

We make Sakaryaspor a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sakaryaspor v 24 Erzincanspor~~2.23 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 12~~1 v 5

~~The market · Sakaryaspor win~~53% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sakaryaspor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sakaryaspor win	58%	53%	+5
Draw	20%	25%	−5
24 Erzincanspor win	21%	22%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	65%	54%	+11
Both teams to score	60%	55%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	84%	76%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	44%	33%	+11
Sakaryaspor or draw	79%	78%	+1
Sakaryaspor clean sheet	31%	–	–
24 Erzincanspor clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 4.2 4.2 2.7 1 7.4 8.9 5.2 2.2 2 7.7 8.8 5.3 2.2 3 5.5 6.2 3.7 4 3.2 3.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sakaryaspor down, 24 Erzincanspor across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,450 2. Lig matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Sakaryaspor at home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). 24 Erzincanspor away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Sakaryaspor, 1.23 for 24 Erzincanspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

SAKARYASPOR

WWWWDW2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

24 ERZINCANSPOR

DDWDWW3–3 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27 · Red Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	7	+10	19
2	Adana 01 FK	7	+6	16
3	Yeni Orduspor	7	+9	15
4	Ankara Demirspor	7	+7	13
5	24 Erzincanspor	6	+4	12
6	1461 Trabzon FK	7	+3	11
7	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	8	0	11
8	Karacabey Belediyespor	7	−3	11
9	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	6	+4	10
10	12 Bingölspor	7	0	9
11	Ankaragücü	6	+4	8
12	Fethiyespor	7	−6	5
13	Serik Spor	7	−7	5
14	İnegölspor	6	−5	4
15	Kırklarelispor	6	−5	4
16	Kütahyaspor	7	−9	4
17	İskenderunspor	6	−12	–