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Muş Sport Klübü v Ankaraspor

Muş Sport Klübü
4–2Full time
Ankaraspor

2. Lig · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31
Muş Sport Klübü 4–2 Ankaraspor MUŞ SPORT KLÜBÜ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Muş Sport Klübü win62%
The market said64%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.212
The market’s Brier score0.197

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Muş Sport Klübü win at 62%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Muş Sport Klübü 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–20–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Muş Sport Klübü v Ankaraspor
  4. 4′Ankaraspor score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 39–22–38
  5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Muş Sport Klübü 0–1 Ankaraspor
  6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Muş Sport Klübü win: 62% at kick-off, 39% now
  7. 5′We said Muş Sport Klübü at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–23–39
  8. 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Ankaraspor win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Muş Sport Klübü win 35%)
  9. 17′We said Muş Sport Klübü at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–24–41
  10. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Muş Sport Klübü win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
  11. 29′We said Muş Sport Klübü at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–26–45
  12. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 29–26–45
  13. 40′We said Muş Sport Klübü at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–27–48
  14. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Muş Sport Klübü win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Muş Sport Klübü 1–2 Ankaraspor
  16. 46′Ankaraspor find the net on 45′. 0–2. 0–2 · 7–14–79
  17. 46′We said Muş Sport Klübü at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–14–79
  18. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Muş Sport Klübü 0–2 Ankaraspor
  19. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Muş Sport Klübü win: 62% at kick-off, 7% now
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Muş Sport Klübü 1–2 Ankaraspor
  21. 47′A goal for Muş Sport Klübü on 45′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 21–28–52
  22. 47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Muş Sport Klübü 1–2 Ankaraspor
  23. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Muş Sport Klübü win: 62% at kick-off, 21% now
  24. 49′We said Muş Sport Klübü at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–28–53
  25. 58′We said Muş Sport Klübü at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–28–58
  26. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Muş Sport Klübü win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
  27. 77′We said Muş Sport Klübü at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
  28. 78′Muş Sport Klübü score on 77′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 23–67–10
  29. 78′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 23–67–10
  30. 78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Muş Sport Klübü 2–2 Ankaraspor
  31. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Muş Sport Klübü win: 62% at kick-off, 23% now
  32. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Ankaraspor win 10%)
  33. 81′Muş Sport Klübü find the net on 81′. 3–2. 3–2 · 92–8–0
  34. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Muş Sport Klübü 3–2 Ankaraspor
  35. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Muş Sport Klübü win: 62% at kick-off, 92% now
  36. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Muş Sport Klübü win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
  37. 82′We said Muş Sport Klübü at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 3–2 · 92–7–0
  38. 82′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 92–7–0
  39. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Muş Sport Klübü win: 62% at kick-off, 92% now
  40. 87′We said Muş Sport Klübü at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  41. 91′Ankaraspor are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–2 · 97–3–0
  42. 91′🟥 RED CARD · 90+1' Ankaraspor
  43. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90' M. Tuncer · Ankaraspor
  44. 97′A goal for Muş Sport Klübü on 90′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  45. 97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Muş Sport Klübü 4–2 Ankaraspor
  46. FTFULL TIME Muş Sport Klübü 4–2 Ankaraspor
  47. FTMuş Sport Klübü 4–2 Ankaraspor · Muş Sport Klübü win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Muş Sport Klübü are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Muş Sport Klübü 62%, draw 20%, Ankaraspor 18%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Muş Sport Klübü v AnkarasporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Muş Sport Klübü win62%
Draw20%
Ankaraspor win18%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

Round2. Lig White Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Muş Sport Klübü

Ankaraspor

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Lig

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27 · White Group

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Muş Sport Klübü6+916
13Ankaraspor6−46

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muş sport klübü winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
62% The market64%
Us62%
Market64%

We make Muş Sport Klübü a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Muş Sport Klübü v Ankaraspor2.24 – 1.07
Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 SeptW5 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 16 v 62 v 13
The market · Muş Sport Klübü win64% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65% 12 OCT 04:0618 OCT 16:32
Our probability · Muş Sport Klübü win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Muş Sport Klübü win62%64%−2
Draw20%21%−1
Ankaraspor win18%15%+3
Over 2.5 goals63%58%+5
Both teams to score57%53%+4
Over 1.5 goals83%79%+4
Over 3.5 goals42%38%+4
Muş Sport Klübü or draw82%85%−3
Muş Sport Klübü clean sheet35%––
Ankaraspor clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%
0123450 4.4 4.0 2.3 1 8.2 9.0 4.7 2 9.0 9.2 4.9 3 6.6 6.7 3.6 4 3.8 3.8 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Muş Sport Klübü down, Ankaraspor across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

MUŞ SPORT KLÜBÜ

DWWWWW4–4 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

ANKARASPOR

LWLLWL0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · White Group
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Elazığspor7+1416
2Muş Sport Klübü6+916
3Güzide Gebzespor7+515
4Aliağa FAŞ6+415
5Çorluspor 19477+613
6İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik7+413
7Şanlıurfaspor7+312
8Isparta 32 Spor7+111
968 Aksaray Belediyespor7+39
10Menemen FK7−29
11Erbaaspor7−17
12Somaspor5−27
13Ankaraspor6−46
14Kastamonuspor7−104
15Sebat Gençlikspor6−52
16Arnavutköy Belediyespor7−130
17Hatayspor7−7–
18Adana Demirspor7−5–

The competition's standings before kick-off.