Menemen FK v Güzide Gebzespor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Menemen FK 0–1 Güzide Gebzespor MENEMEN FK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Menemen FK win~~37%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.618

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.438

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Menemen FK win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Menemen FK was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
1′KICK-OFF Menemen FK v Güzide Gebzespor
26′A goal for Güzide Gebzespor on 26′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–21–66
26′We said Menemen FK at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–21–66
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Menemen FK 0–1 Güzide Gebzespor
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Menemen FK win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Güzide Gebzespor win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Menemen FK win 13%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 12–21–66
43′We said Menemen FK at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
45′HALF-TIME Menemen FK 0–1 Güzide Gebzespor
46′SECOND HALF Menemen FK 0–1 Güzide Gebzespor
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Menemen FK win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
64′We said Menemen FK at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–77
77′A red card for Menemen FK on 77′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 1–13–85
77′🟥 RED CARD · 77' Menemen FK
79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Menemen FK
FTFULL TIME Menemen FK 0–1 Güzide Gebzespor
FTMenemen FK 0–1 Güzide Gebzespor · Menemen FK win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Menemen FK just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Menemen FK 37%, draw 27%, Güzide Gebzespor 36%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Menemen FK v Güzide GebzesporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Menemen FK win37%

Draw27%

Güzide Gebzespor win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

Round2. Lig White Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Menemen FK

Güzide Gebzespor

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Güzide Gebzespor	6	+4	12
9	Menemen FK	6	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · menemen fk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market27%

Us37%

~~Market~~27%

We make Menemen FK a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Menemen FK v Güzide Gebzespor~~1.33 – 1.31

~~Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 12~~9 v 4

~~The market · Menemen FK win~~27% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Menemen FK win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Menemen FK win	37%	27%	+10
Draw	27%	27%	0
Güzide Gebzespor win	36%	46%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	49%	54%	−5
Both teams to score	52%	58%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	73%	76%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	34%	−7
Menemen FK or draw	64%	54%	+10
Menemen FK clean sheet	28%	–	–
Güzide Gebzespor clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.2 9.2 6.2 2.8 1 9.2 12.2 7.6 3.4 2 6.4 7.8 5.0 2.2 3 3.0 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Menemen FK down, Güzide Gebzespor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,433 2. Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Menemen FK at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Güzide Gebzespor away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Menemen FK, 1.31 for Güzide Gebzespor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MEN 1–2 GUZ · GUZ 1–1 MEN · GUZ 3–2 MEN · MEN 1–0 GUZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

MENEMEN FK

LLWWWL1–3 · 0–4 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

GÜZIDE GEBZESPOR

WWDDDW2–0 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · White Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Muş Sport Klübü	6	+9	16
2	Aliağa FAŞ	6	+4	15
3	Elazığspor	6	+11	13
4	Güzide Gebzespor	6	+4	12
5	Çorluspor 1947	6	+5	10
6	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	6	+3	10
7	Isparta 32 Spor	6	+1	10
8	Şanlıurfaspor	6	+1	9
9	Menemen FK	6	−1	9
10	Erbaaspor	6	0	7
11	Somaspor	5	−2	7
12	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	6	+1	6
13	Ankaraspor	6	−4	6
14	Kastamonuspor	6	−10	3
15	Sebat Gençlikspor	5	−4	2
16	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	6	−10	0
17	Hatayspor	6	−5	–
18	Adana Demirspor	6	−3	–