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Kırklarelispor v Ankara Demirspor

Kırklarelispor

2–4Full time

Ankara Demirspor

2. Lig · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Kırklarelispor 2–4 Ankara Demirspor ANKARA DEMIRSPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ankara Demirspor win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.547

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.521

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ankara Demirspor win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ankara Demirspor 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
1′KICK-OFF Kırklarelispor v Ankara Demirspor
10′Kırklarelispor find the net on 9′. 1–0. 1–0 · 61–21–18
10′We said Ankara Demirspor at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 61–21–18
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Kırklarelispor 1–0 Ankara Demirspor
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Ankara Demirspor win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Kırklarelispor win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Ankara Demirspor win 18%)
26′We said Ankara Demirspor at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 64–22–14
43′A goal for Ankara Demirspor on 43′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–38–33
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Ankara Demirspor win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Kırklarelispor 1–1 Ankara Demirspor
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Ankara Demirspor win: 40% at kick-off, 33% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Kırklarelispor win 29%)
45′HALF-TIME Kırklarelispor 1–2 Ankara Demirspor
46′Ankara Demirspor score on 45′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 8–20–72
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Kırklarelispor 1–2 Ankara Demirspor
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Ankara Demirspor win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Ankara Demirspor win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 20%)
46′SECOND HALF Kırklarelispor 1–2 Ankara Demirspor
47′We said Ankara Demirspor at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–2 · 8–20–72
47′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 8–20–72
56′We said Ankara Demirspor at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–20–75
67′We said Ankara Demirspor at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Ankara Demirspor win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
70′Ankara Demirspor find the net on 69′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–97
70′We said Ankara Demirspor at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 1–3 · 0–2–97
70′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–97
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Kırklarelispor 1–3 Ankara Demirspor
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Ankara Demirspor win: 40% at kick-off, 97% now
80′A goal for Kırklarelispor on 79′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 1–11–89
80′We said Ankara Demirspor at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–3 · 1–11–89
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Kırklarelispor 2–3 Ankara Demirspor
81′We said Ankara Demirspor at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–3 · 1–10–90
81′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–10–90
85′Ankara Demirspor score on 85′ to make it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
85′We said Ankara Demirspor at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–4 · 0–0–100
85′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–0–100
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Kırklarelispor 2–4 Ankara Demirspor
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Ankara Demirspor win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
87′PENALTY MISSED · 87' Ankara Demirspor
90′81′: D. Yasar on the scoresheet for Ankara Demirspor, making it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
90′PENALTY MISSED · 80' M. Ozdiraz · Ankara Demirspor
FTFULL TIME Kırklarelispor 2–4 Ankara Demirspor
FTKırklarelispor 2–4 Ankara Demirspor · Ankara Demirspor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ankara Demirspor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kırklarelispor 34%, draw 26%, Ankara Demirspor 40%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Kırklarelispor v Ankara DemirsporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kırklarelispor win34%

Draw26%

Ankara Demirspor win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

Round2. Lig Red Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kırklarelispor

Ankara Demirspor

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ankara Demirspor	6	+5	10
14	Kırklarelispor	5	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ankara demirspor winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make Ankara Demirspor a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kırklarelispor v Ankara Demirspor~~1.28 – 1.41

~~Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 10~~14 v 6

~~The market · Ankara Demirspor win~~41% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ankara Demirspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kırklarelispor win	34%	31%	+3
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Ankara Demirspor win	40%	41%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	51%	−1
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	31%	−2
Kırklarelispor or draw	60%	59%	+1
Kırklarelispor clean sheet	26%	–	–
Ankara Demirspor clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.8 9.4 6.7 3.2 1 8.6 12.1 8.1 3.9 2 5.6 7.4 5.1 2.4 3 2.5 3.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kırklarelispor down, Ankara Demirspor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,438 2. Lig matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kırklarelispor at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ankara Demirspor away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Kırklarelispor, 1.41 for Ankara Demirspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KIR 2–0 ANK · ANK 4–0 KIR · KIR 0–0 ANK · ANK 0–0 KIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

KIRKLARELISPOR

WLDLL1–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–2

ANKARA DEMIRSPOR

WWDLLW1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27 · Red Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	6	+9	16
2	Adana 01 FK	6	+2	13
3	Yeni Orduspor	6	+7	12
4	24 Erzincanspor	6	+4	12
5	1461 Trabzon FK	7	+3	11
6	Ankara Demirspor	6	+5	10
7	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	5	+5	10
8	Ankaragücü	6	+4	8
9	12 Bingölspor	6	0	8
10	Karacabey Belediyespor	5	−1	8
11	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	6	−1	8
12	Serik Spor	6	−4	5
13	Fethiyespor	7	−6	5
14	Kırklarelispor	5	−3	4
15	İnegölspor	6	−5	4
16	Kütahyaspor	6	−9	3
17	İskenderunspor	5	−10	–