Kastamonuspor v Isparta 32 Spor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Kastamonuspor 2–2 Isparta 32 Spor ISPARTA 32 SPOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Isparta 32 Spor win~~46%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.897

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.841

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Isparta 32 Spor win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Isparta 32 Spor 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 31–23–46
1′KICK-OFF Kastamonuspor v Isparta 32 Spor
21′Isparta 32 Spor find the net on 20′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–70
21′We said Isparta 32 Spor at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 12–18–70
21′Isparta 32 Spor ahead on 19′ through H. Kulya. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–70
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Kastamonuspor 0–1 Isparta 32 Spor
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Isparta 32 Spor win: 46% at kick-off, 70% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 10–18–71
45′HALF-TIME Kastamonuspor 0–2 Isparta 32 Spor
46′A goal for Isparta 32 Spor on 45′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
46′We said Isparta 32 Spor at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Kastamonuspor 0–2 Isparta 32 Spor
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Isparta 32 Spor win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
46′SECOND HALF Kastamonuspor 0–2 Isparta 32 Spor
51′Kastamonuspor score on 50′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 7–19–75
51′We said Isparta 32 Spor at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 7–19–75
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Kastamonuspor 1–2 Isparta 32 Spor
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Isparta 32 Spor win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
67′We said Isparta 32 Spor at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
76′We said Isparta 32 Spor at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
77′Kastamonuspor find the net on 76′. 2–2. 2–2 · 14–67–19
77′We said Isparta 32 Spor at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 14–67–19
77′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 14–67–19
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Kastamonuspor 2–2 Isparta 32 Spor
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Isparta 32 Spor win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Isparta 32 Spor win 19%)
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Isparta 32 Spor win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
81′We said Isparta 32 Spor at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 11–75–14
86′We said Isparta 32 Spor at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 7–85–9
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Isparta 32 Spor win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
FTFULL TIME Kastamonuspor 2–2 Isparta 32 Spor
FTKastamonuspor 2–2 Isparta 32 Spor · Isparta 32 Spor win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Isparta 32 Spor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kastamonuspor 31%, draw 23%, Isparta 32 Spor 46%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Kastamonuspor v Isparta 32 SporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kastamonuspor win31%

Draw23%

Isparta 32 Spor win46%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

Round2. Lig White Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kastamonuspor

Isparta 32 Spor

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Isparta 32 Spor	6	+1	10
14	Kastamonuspor	6	−10	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · isparta 32 spor winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market48%

Us46%

~~Market~~48%

We make Isparta 32 Spor a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kastamonuspor v Isparta 32 Spor~~1.35 – 1.79

~~Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 10~~14 v 8

~~The market · Isparta 32 Spor win~~48% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Isparta 32 Spor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kastamonuspor win	31%	26%	+5
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Isparta 32 Spor win	46%	48%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	54%	+5
Both teams to score	59%	57%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	33%	+5
Kastamonuspor or draw	54%	52%	+2
Kastamonuspor clean sheet	20%	–	–
Isparta 32 Spor clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.5 7.6 6.5 3.9 1 6.4 10.5 8.2 4.8 2.4 2 4.6 6.9 5.5 3.2 3 2.1 3.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kastamonuspor down, Isparta 32 Spor across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,438 2. Lig matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kastamonuspor at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Isparta 32 Spor away: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Kastamonuspor, 1.79 for Isparta 32 Spor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ISP 1–3 KAS · KAS 0–0 ISP · KAS 3–0 ISP · ISP 0–3 KAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

KASTAMONUSPOR

LLWLWL0–5 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–1

ISPARTA 32 SPOR

LLDWWW1–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27 · White Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Elazığspor	7	+14	16
2	Muş Sport Klübü	6	+9	16
3	Güzide Gebzespor	7	+5	15
4	Aliağa FAŞ	6	+4	15
5	Şanlıurfaspor	7	+3	12
6	Çorluspor 1947	6	+5	10
7	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	6	+3	10
8	Isparta 32 Spor	6	+1	10
9	Menemen FK	7	−2	9
10	Erbaaspor	6	0	7
11	Somaspor	5	−2	7
12	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	6	+1	6
13	Ankaraspor	6	−4	6
14	Kastamonuspor	6	−10	3
15	Sebat Gençlikspor	5	−4	2
16	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	7	−13	0
17	Hatayspor	7	−7	–
18	Adana Demirspor	6	−3	–