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Karacabey Belediyespor v 1461 Trabzon FK

Karacabey Belediyespor

2–2Full time

1461 Trabzon FK

2. Lig · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Karacabey Belediyespor 2–2 1461 Trabzon FK KARACABEY BELEDIYESPOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Karacabey Belediyespor win~~45%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.864

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.808

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karacabey Belediyespor win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Karacabey Belediyespor was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
3′Much as we predicted: Karacabey Belediyespor was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–30
21′5′ and it is 1–0: A. Dama on the scoresheet for Karacabey Belediyespor. 1–0 · 71–18–11
25′5′ and it is 1–0: A. Dama on the scoresheet for Karacabey Belediyespor. 1–0 · 71–19–10
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Karacabey Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 46% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Karacabey Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Karacabey Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 46% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Karacabey Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
27′5′ and it is 1–0: A. Dama on the scoresheet for Karacabey Belediyespor. 1–0 · 71–19–10
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Karacabey Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Karacabey Belediyespor 1–1 1461 Trabzon FK
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Karacabey Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 37% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Karacabey Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
45′1461 Trabzon FK ahead on 27′ through S. Polat. 1–1. 1–1 · 37–37–26
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Karacabey Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 37% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Karacabey Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
45′HALF-TIME Karacabey Belediyespor 1–1 1461 Trabzon FK
46′SECOND HALF Karacabey Belediyespor 1–1 1461 Trabzon FK
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Karacabey Belediyespor 2–1 1461 Trabzon FK
80′⚽ GOAL · 5' Karacabey Belediyespor 2–1 1461 Trabzon FK · A. Dama (assist O. Kursun)
80′⚽ GOAL · 27' Karacabey Belediyespor 2–1 1461 Trabzon FK · S. Polat
80′⚽ GOAL · 49' Karacabey Belediyespor 2–1 1461 Trabzon FK · T. Kaya (assist A. Yumurtaci)
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Karacabey Belediyespor 2–2 1461 Trabzon FK
FTFULL TIME Karacabey Belediyespor 2–2 1461 Trabzon FK
FTKaracabey Belediyespor 2–2 1461 Trabzon FK · Karacabey Belediyespor win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Karacabey Belediyespor win45%

Draw25%

1461 Trabzon FK win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Karacabey Belediyespor

1461 Trabzon FK

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	1461 Trabzon FK	5	+2	7
22	Karacabey Belediyespor	4	−1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karacabey belediyespor winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

45% The market37%

Us45%

~~Market~~37%

We make Karacabey Belediyespor a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · karacabey belediyespor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karacabey Belediyespor win	45%	37%	+8
Draw	25%	27%	−2
1461 Trabzon FK win	30%	36%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	34%	0
Karacabey Belediyespor or draw	70%	64%	+6
Karacabey Belediyespor clean sheet	29%	–	–
1461 Trabzon FK clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.3 6.9 4.6 2.0 1 8.5 11.2 6.9 3.1 2 7.0 8.5 5.4 2.4 3 3.9 4.7 3.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karacabey Belediyespor down, 1461 Trabzon FK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,424 2. Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karacabey Belediyespor at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). 1461 Trabzon FK away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Karacabey Belediyespor, 1.30 for 1461 Trabzon FK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KAR 3–1 TRA · TRA 1–0 KAR · KAR 1–0 TRA · TRA 0–0 KAR

Form · last six in 2. Lig

KARACABEY BELEDIYESPOR

DLDWLW2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–0

1461 TRABZON FK

LLLDWW4–5 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Muş Sport Klübü	6	+9	16
2	Sakaryaspor	5	+9	15
3	Aliağa FAŞ	6	+4	15
4	Elazığspor	5	+8	10
5	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	4	+7	10
6	Ankara Demirspor	6	+5	10
7	Çorluspor 1947	6	+5	10
8	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	6	+3	10
9	Adana 01 FK	5	+1	10
10	Isparta 32 Spor	6	+1	10
11	Yeni Orduspor	5	+6	9
12	Güzide Gebzespor	5	+3	9
13	24 Erzincanspor	5	+2	9
14	Şanlıurfaspor	6	+1	9
15	Menemen FK	6	−1	9
16	12 Bingölspor	6	0	8
17	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	6	−1	8
18	Ankaragücü	5	+4	7
19	1461 Trabzon FK	5	+2	7
20	Erbaaspor	5	+1	7
21	Somaspor	4	+1	7
22	Karacabey Belediyespor	4	−1	7
23	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	6	+1	6
24	Ankaraspor	6	−4	6
25	Kastamonuspor	6	−10	6
26	Serik Spor	5	−3	5
27	Kırklarelispor	4	−2	4
28	Hatayspor	5	−2	4
29	Fethiyespor	5	−5	4
30	Adana Demirspor	5	−6	4
31	Kütahyaspor	6	−9	3
32	Sebat Gençlikspor	5	−4	2
33	İnegölspor	4	−5	1
34	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	6	−10	0
35	İskenderunspor	4	−10	0