Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor v Serik Spor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 4–1 Serik Spor KAHRAMANMARAŞ İSTIKLAL SPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.332

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–24–23
1′KICK-OFF Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor v Serik Spor
16′A goal for Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–8
16′We published Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor at 53%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–8
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 1–0 Serik Spor
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win: 53% at kick-off, 77% now
17′G. Bitin scores for Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–8
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
45′HALF-TIME Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 1–0 Serik Spor
46′SECOND HALF Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 1–0 Serik Spor
52′We published Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor at 53%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
53′Serik Spor score on 53′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 38–42–20
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 1–1 Serik Spor
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win: 53% at kick-off, 38% now
54′We said Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–42–20
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win 37%)
60′We said Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–47–19
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
65′ Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor find the net on 65′. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–3
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 2–1 Serik Spor
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
66′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–14–2
70′We published Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor at 53%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
79′We published Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor at 53%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
79′A goal for Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor on 79′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 3–1 Serik Spor
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win: 53% at kick-off, 99% now
80′We published Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor at 53%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
80′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
81′We published Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor at 53%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′ Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor score on 90′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 4–1 Serik Spor
FTFULL TIME Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 4–1 Serik Spor
FT Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 4–1 Serik Spor · Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 53%, draw 24%, Serik Spor 23%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor v Serik SporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win53%

Draw24%

Serik Spor win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

Round2. Lig Red Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor

Serik Spor

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	6	−1	8
12	Serik Spor	6	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kahramanmaraş i̇stiklal spor winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor v Serik Spor~~1.80 – 1.10

~~Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 5~~11 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win	53%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Serik Spor win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor or draw	77%	–	–
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor clean sheet	34%	–	–
Serik Spor clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 6.6 6.1 3.5 1 9.8 10.8 5.7 2.2 2 8.7 9.1 5.0 3 5.3 5.5 3.0 4 2.5 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor down, Serik Spor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,438 2. Lig matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Serik Spor away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor, 1.10 for Serik Spor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

KAHRAMANMARAŞ İSTIKLAL SPOR

DDLWWL0–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

SERIK SPOR

DWDLLL1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27 · Red Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	6	+9	16
2	Adana 01 FK	6	+2	13
3	Yeni Orduspor	6	+7	12
4	24 Erzincanspor	6	+4	12
5	1461 Trabzon FK	7	+3	11
6	Ankara Demirspor	6	+5	10
7	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	5	+5	10
8	Ankaragücü	6	+4	8
9	12 Bingölspor	6	0	8
10	Karacabey Belediyespor	5	−1	8
11	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	6	−1	8
12	Serik Spor	6	−4	5
13	Fethiyespor	7	−6	5
14	Kırklarelispor	5	−3	4
15	İnegölspor	6	−5	4
16	Kütahyaspor	6	−9	3
17	İskenderunspor	5	−10	–