İskenderunspor v Yeni Orduspor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

İskenderunspor 0–2 Yeni Orduspor YENI ORDUSPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yeni Orduspor win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.507

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yeni Orduspor win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Yeni Orduspor was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 33–25–42
1′KICK-OFF İskenderunspor v Yeni Orduspor
19′Yeni Orduspor score on 19′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–19–68
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' İskenderunspor 0–1 Yeni Orduspor
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Yeni Orduspor win: 42% at kick-off, 68% now
20′We published Yeni Orduspor at 42%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 13–19–68
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 11–20–69
34′We published Yeni Orduspor at 42%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 11–20–70
40′A red card for Yeni Orduspor on 40′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 9–20–71
40′🟥 RED CARD · 40' Yeni Orduspor
42′🟨 YELLOW · 40' E. Eyibil · Yeni Orduspor
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Yeni Orduspor win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
45′HALF-TIME İskenderunspor 0–1 Yeni Orduspor
46′SECOND HALF İskenderunspor 0–1 Yeni Orduspor
51′Yeni Orduspor find the net on 51′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' İskenderunspor 0–2 Yeni Orduspor
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Yeni Orduspor win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
52′We published Yeni Orduspor at 42%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
59′We published Yeni Orduspor at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
84′We published Yeni Orduspor at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
86′Yeni Orduspor are down to nine from 85′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–2 · 0–0–100
86′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Yeni Orduspor
90′🟨 YELLOW · 85' M. C. Akcay · Yeni Orduspor
FTFULL TIME İskenderunspor 0–2 Yeni Orduspor
FTİskenderunspor 0–2 Yeni Orduspor · Yeni Orduspor win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yeni Orduspor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: İskenderunspor 33%, draw 25%, Yeni Orduspor 42%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on İskenderunspor v Yeni OrdusporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

İskenderunspor win33%

Draw25%

Yeni Orduspor win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

Round2. Lig Red Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

İskenderunspor

Yeni Orduspor

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Yeni Orduspor	6	+7	12
17	İskenderunspor	5	−10	–

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yeni orduspor winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Yeni Orduspor a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · İskenderunspor v Yeni Orduspor~~1.38 – 1.60

~~Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D1 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places~~17 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
İskenderunspor win	33%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Yeni Orduspor win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
İskenderunspor or draw	58%	–	–
İskenderunspor clean sheet	22%	–	–
Yeni Orduspor clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.1 8.1 6.4 3.5 1 7.1 11.2 8.3 4.4 2 5.0 7.4 5.6 3.0 3 2.4 3.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+İskenderunspor down, Yeni Orduspor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,438 2. Lig matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

İskenderunspor at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Yeni Orduspor away: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for İskenderunspor, 1.60 for Yeni Orduspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ISK 3–1 YEN · YEN 1–3 ISK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

İSKENDERUNSPOR

LLLLD1–4 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 2–3 · 2–2

YENI ORDUSPOR

WWLLWW3–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · Red Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	6	+9	16
2	Adana 01 FK	6	+2	13
3	Yeni Orduspor	6	+7	12
4	24 Erzincanspor	6	+4	12
5	1461 Trabzon FK	7	+3	11
6	Ankara Demirspor	6	+5	10
7	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	5	+5	10
8	Ankaragücü	6	+4	8
9	12 Bingölspor	6	0	8
10	Karacabey Belediyespor	5	−1	8
11	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	6	−1	8
12	Serik Spor	6	−4	5
13	Fethiyespor	7	−6	5
14	Kırklarelispor	5	−3	4
15	İnegölspor	6	−5	4
16	Kütahyaspor	6	−9	3
17	İskenderunspor	5	−10	–