İnegölspor v Fethiyespor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

İnegölspor 2–1 Fethiyespor İNEGÖLSPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said İnegölspor win~~51%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.357

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.597

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said İnegölspor win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: İnegölspor 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
1′KICK-OFF İnegölspor v Fethiyespor
3′Little has changed for our model: İnegölspor 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–24
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' İnegölspor 1–0 Fethiyespor
45′HALF-TIME İnegölspor 1–0 Fethiyespor
46′SECOND HALF İnegölspor 1–0 Fethiyespor
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' İnegölspor 2–0 Fethiyespor
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' İnegölspor 2–1 Fethiyespor
84′⚽ GOAL · 32' İnegölspor 2–1 Fethiyespor · K. Bakirtas
84′⚽ GOAL · 55' İnegölspor 2–1 Fethiyespor · K. Kilinc (assist H. Acar)
84′⚽ GOAL · 74' İnegölspor 2–1 Fethiyespor · B. Suleyman
FTFULL TIME İnegölspor 2–1 Fethiyespor
FTİnegölspor 2–1 Fethiyespor · İnegölspor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

İnegölspor win51%

Draw25%

Fethiyespor win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

İnegölspor

Fethiyespor

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
29	Fethiyespor	5	−5	4
33	İnegölspor	4	−5	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · i̇negölspor winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

51% The market37%

Us51%

~~Market~~37%

We make İnegölspor a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · i̇negölspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
İnegölspor win	51%	37%	+14
Draw	25%	28%	−4
Fethiyespor win	24%	35%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	51%	50%	+1
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	30%	0
İnegölspor or draw	76%	65%	+10
İnegölspor clean sheet	36%	–	–
Fethiyespor clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 7.4 6.7 3.8 1 10.5 11.4 5.9 2.2 2 8.9 8.9 4.7 3 5.1 5.1 2.7 4 2.3 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+İnegölspor down, Fethiyespor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,424 2. Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

İnegölspor at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Fethiyespor away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for İnegölspor, 1.06 for Fethiyespor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~INE 1–1 FET · FET 0–0 INE · FET 0–0 INE · INE 0–0 FET

Form · last six in 2. Lig

İNEGÖLSPOR

DDDLLL1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–4

FETHIYESPOR

DLLDWL0–0 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Muş Sport Klübü	6	+9	16
2	Sakaryaspor	5	+9	15
3	Aliağa FAŞ	6	+4	15
4	Elazığspor	5	+8	10
5	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	4	+7	10
6	Ankara Demirspor	6	+5	10
7	Çorluspor 1947	6	+5	10
8	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	6	+3	10
9	Adana 01 FK	5	+1	10
10	Isparta 32 Spor	6	+1	10
11	Yeni Orduspor	5	+6	9
12	Güzide Gebzespor	5	+3	9
13	24 Erzincanspor	5	+2	9
14	Şanlıurfaspor	6	+1	9
15	Menemen FK	6	−1	9
16	12 Bingölspor	6	0	8
17	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	6	−1	8
18	Ankaragücü	5	+4	7
19	1461 Trabzon FK	5	+2	7
20	Erbaaspor	5	+1	7
21	Somaspor	4	+1	7
22	Karacabey Belediyespor	4	−1	7
23	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	6	+1	6
24	Ankaraspor	6	−4	6
25	Kastamonuspor	6	−10	6
26	Serik Spor	5	−3	5
27	Kırklarelispor	4	−2	4
28	Hatayspor	5	−2	4
29	Fethiyespor	5	−5	4
30	Adana Demirspor	5	−6	4
31	Kütahyaspor	6	−9	3
32	Sebat Gençlikspor	5	−4	2
33	İnegölspor	4	−5	1
34	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	6	−10	0
35	İskenderunspor	4	−10	0