İnegölspor v Adana 01 FK prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

İnegölspor 1–1 Adana 01 FK ADANA 01 FK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Adana 01 FK win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.886

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Adana 01 FK win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Adana 01 FK 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
1′KICK-OFF İnegölspor v Adana 01 FK
37′PENALTY MISSED · 37' Adana 01 FK
45′HALF-TIME İnegölspor 0–0 Adana 01 FK
46′SECOND HALF İnegölspor 0–0 Adana 01 FK
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Adana 01 FK win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Adana 01 FK win 36%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.2 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 26–41–33
56′We said Adana 01 FK at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 26–42–32
63′We said Adana 01 FK at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 23–48–29
70′We said Adana 01 FK at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 20–56–24
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Adana 01 FK win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
76′We said Adana 01 FK at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 16–65–19
81′We said Adana 01 FK at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 12–75–14
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Adana 01 FK win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
84′Adana 01 FK score on 83′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–8–92
84′We said Adana 01 FK at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–1 · 0–8–92
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' İnegölspor 0–1 Adana 01 FK
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Adana 01 FK win: 44% at kick-off, 92% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Adana 01 FK win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 79%)
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Adana 01 FK win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
89′We said Adana 01 FK at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′İnegölspor find the net on 90′. 1–1. 1–1 · 4–90–5
90′We said Adana 01 FK at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 1–1 · 4–90–5
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' İnegölspor 1–1 Adana 01 FK
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Adana 01 FK win: 44% at kick-off, 5% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Adana 01 FK win 95%)
92′We said Adana 01 FK at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Adana 01 FK win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME İnegölspor 1–1 Adana 01 FK
FTİnegölspor 1–1 Adana 01 FK · Adana 01 FK win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Adana 01 FK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: İnegölspor 33%, draw 23%, Adana 01 FK 44%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on İnegölspor v Adana 01 FKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

İnegölspor win33%

Draw23%

Adana 01 FK win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

Round2. Lig Red Group · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

İnegölspor

Adana 01 FK

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Adana 01 FK	7	+6	16
14	İnegölspor	6	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · adana 01 fk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Adana 01 FK a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · İnegölspor v Adana 01 FK~~1.46 – 1.75

~~Form · last six in 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 16~~14 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Adana 01 FK win

Published at 41%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
İnegölspor win	33%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Adana 01 FK win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
İnegölspor or draw	56%	–	–
İnegölspor clean sheet	19%	–	–
Adana 01 FK clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.0 7.1 6.2 3.6 1 6.1 10.4 8.4 4.9 2.2 2 4.5 7.2 6.0 3.5 3 2.2 3.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+İnegölspor down, Adana 01 FK across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,450 2. Lig matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

İnegölspor at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Adana 01 FK away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for İnegölspor, 1.75 for Adana 01 FK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ADA 4–1 INE · INE 0–0 ADA · ADA 4–2 INE · INE 1–1 ADA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

İNEGÖLSPOR

DLLLWL2–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–2

ADANA 01 FK

LWWWWW0–2 · 3–2 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27 · Red Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	7	+10	19
2	Adana 01 FK	7	+6	16
3	Yeni Orduspor	7	+9	15
4	Ankara Demirspor	7	+7	13
5	24 Erzincanspor	6	+4	12
6	1461 Trabzon FK	7	+3	11
7	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	7	+2	11
8	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	6	+4	10
9	12 Bingölspor	7	0	9
10	Ankaragücü	6	+4	8
11	Karacabey Belediyespor	6	−5	8
12	Fethiyespor	7	−6	5
13	Serik Spor	7	−7	5
14	İnegölspor	6	−5	4
15	Kırklarelispor	6	−5	4
16	Kütahyaspor	7	−9	4
17	İskenderunspor	6	−12	–