İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik v Sebat Gençlikspor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 2–1 Sebat Gençlikspor İNEGÖL KAFKAS GENÇLIK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.348

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–23–25
1′KICK-OFF İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik v Sebat Gençlikspor
31′İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik score on 30′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
31′We published İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik at 52%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 1–0 Sebat Gençlikspor
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik win: 52% at kick-off, 76% now
32′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–8
45′HALF-TIME İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 1–0 Sebat Gençlikspor
46′SECOND HALF İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 1–0 Sebat Gençlikspor
48′İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik find the net on 48′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
48′We published İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik at 52%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 2–0 Sebat Gençlikspor
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik win: 52% at kick-off, 94% now
50′İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik ahead on 47′ through H. Bekil. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
50′We published İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik at 52%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
60′A goal for Sebat Gençlikspor on 60′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 80–16–4
60′We published İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik at 52%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 2–1 Sebat Gençlikspor
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
73′We published İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
FTFULL TIME İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 2–1 Sebat Gençlikspor
FTİnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 2–1 Sebat Gençlikspor · İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 52%, draw 23%, Sebat Gençlikspor 25%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik v Sebat GençliksporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik win52%

Draw23%

Sebat Gençlikspor win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

Round2. Lig White Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

Sebat Gençlikspor

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Lig

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	6	+3	10
15	Sebat Gençlikspor	5	−4	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · i̇negöl kafkas gençlik winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik v Sebat Gençlikspor~~1.88 – 1.23

~~Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 2~~7 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik win	52%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Sebat Gençlikspor win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik or draw	75%	–	–
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik clean sheet	30%	–	–
Sebat Gençlikspor clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 5.4 5.5 3.5 1 8.4 10.3 6.1 2.6 2 7.8 9.1 5.5 2.3 3 4.9 5.7 3.4 4 2.4 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik down, Sebat Gençlikspor across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,438 2. Lig matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Sebat Gençlikspor away: 1.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik, 1.23 for Sebat Gençlikspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

İNEGÖL KAFKAS GENÇLIK

WLDWLW3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

SEBAT GENÇLIKSPOR

LDLLD1–3 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · White Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Elazığspor	7	+14	16
2	Muş Sport Klübü	6	+9	16
3	Güzide Gebzespor	7	+5	15
4	Aliağa FAŞ	6	+4	15
5	Şanlıurfaspor	7	+3	12
6	Çorluspor 1947	6	+5	10
7	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	6	+3	10
8	Isparta 32 Spor	6	+1	10
9	Menemen FK	7	−2	9
10	Erbaaspor	6	0	7
11	Somaspor	5	−2	7
12	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	6	+1	6
13	Ankaraspor	6	−4	6
14	Kastamonuspor	6	−10	3
15	Sebat Gençlikspor	5	−4	2
16	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	7	−13	0
17	Hatayspor	7	−7	–
18	Adana Demirspor	6	−3	–