Hatayspor v Erbaaspor
HataysporErbaaspor2. Lig · SAT 24 OCT · Mersin Stadyumu
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Hatayspor win at 41%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Hatayspor was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–34
- 1′KICK-OFF Hatayspor v Erbaaspor
- 6′Erbaaspor score on 5′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–21–60
- 6′We said Hatayspor at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–21–60
- 6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Hatayspor 0–1 Erbaaspor
- 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Hatayspor win: 41% at kick-off, 19% now
- 6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Erbaaspor win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Hatayspor win 40%)
- 30′We said Hatayspor at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–63
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 14–22–63
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Hatayspor win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Hatayspor 0–2 Erbaaspor
- 46′SECOND HALF Hatayspor 0–2 Erbaaspor
- 47′Erbaaspor find the net on 45′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Hatayspor 0–2 Erbaaspor
- 48′We said Hatayspor at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
- 54′PENALTY MISSED · 54' Hatayspor
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Hatayspor win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
- 82′A goal for Erbaaspor on 82′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
- 82′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
- 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Hatayspor 0–3 Erbaaspor
- FTFULL TIME Hatayspor 0–3 Erbaaspor
- FTHatayspor 0–3 Erbaaspor · Hatayspor win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Hatayspor are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Hatayspor 41%, draw 25%, Erbaaspor 34%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Hatayspor win41%Erbaaspor win34%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30
Round2. Lig White Group · matchday 8
VenueMersin Stadyumu
Match timeline
All events
HataysporMINErbaasporEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Hatayspor
Erbaaspor
Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Lig
Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Lig
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27 · White GroupPositions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Erbaaspor | 7 | −1 | 7 |
| 17 | Hatayspor | 7 | −7 | – |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Hatayspor a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hatayspor win | 41% | 31% | +10 |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | −2 |
| Erbaaspor win | 34% | 42% | −8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 32% | +1 |
| Hatayspor or draw | 66% | 58% | +8 |
| Hatayspor clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Erbaaspor clean sheet | 23% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in 2. Lig this season · since 13 Sept
HATAYSPOR
ERBAASPOR
The table
2026/27 · White Group| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Muş Sport Klübü | 7 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 |  Aliağa FAŞ | 7 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 |  Elazığspor | 7 | +14 | 16 |
| 4 |  Güzide Gebzespor | 7 | +5 | 15 |
| 5 |  Çorluspor 1947 | 7 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 |  İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Şanlıurfaspor | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 |  Isparta 32 Spor | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 7 | +3 | 9 |
| 10 |  Menemen FK | 7 | −2 | 9 |
| 11 | Erbaaspor | 7 | −1 | 7 |
| 12 |  Somaspor | 6 | −3 | 7 |
| 13 |  Ankaraspor | 7 | −6 | 6 |
| 14 |  Kastamonuspor | 7 | −10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Sebat Gençlikspor | 6 | −5 | 2 |
| 16 |  Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 7 | −13 | 0 |
| 17 | Hatayspor | 7 | −7 | – |
| 18 |  Adana Demirspor | 7 | −5 | – |
The competition's standings before kick-off.