Hatayspor v Elazığspor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Hatayspor 0–3 Elazığspor ELAZIĞSPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Elazığspor win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.260

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Elazığspor win at 59%.
1′KICK-OFF Hatayspor v Elazığspor
2′Much as we predicted: Elazığspor was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 18–23–60
45′We said Elazığspor at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 17–37–46
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Elazığspor win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Elazığspor win: 59% at kick-off, 54% now
45′HALF-TIME Hatayspor 0–0 Elazığspor
46′SECOND HALF Hatayspor 0–0 Elazığspor
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Hatayspor 0–1 Elazığspor
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Hatayspor 0–1 Elazığspor
71′🟥 RED CARD · 71' Hatayspor
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Hatayspor 0–2 Elazığspor
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Hatayspor 0–3 Elazığspor
90′PENALTY MISSED · 96' Hatayspor
FTFULL TIME Hatayspor 0–3 Elazığspor
FTHatayspor 0–3 Elazığspor · Elazığspor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Hatayspor win18%

Draw23%

Elazığspor win59%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueMersin Stadyumu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hatayspor

Elazığspor

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Elazığspor	5	+8	10
28	Hatayspor	5	−2	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · elazığspor winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Elazığspor a 59% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.8, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hatayspor win	18%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Elazığspor win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Hatayspor or draw	41%	–	–
Hatayspor clean sheet	18%	–	–
Elazığspor clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.8 12.1 10.9 6.7 3.2 1 5.9 10.7 9.0 5.4 2.6 2 2.8 4.6 4.0 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hatayspor down, Elazığspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,424 2. Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Hatayspor at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Elazığspor away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Hatayspor, 1.83 for Elazığspor. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 2. Lig

HATAYSPOR

LDLWL0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

ELAZIĞSPOR

DWWWDL0–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 0–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Muş Sport Klübü	6	+9	16
2	Sakaryaspor	5	+9	15
3	Aliağa FAŞ	6	+4	15
4	Elazığspor	5	+8	10
5	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	4	+7	10
6	Ankara Demirspor	6	+5	10
7	Çorluspor 1947	6	+5	10
8	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	6	+3	10
9	Adana 01 FK	5	+1	10
10	Isparta 32 Spor	6	+1	10
11	Yeni Orduspor	5	+6	9
12	Güzide Gebzespor	5	+3	9
13	24 Erzincanspor	5	+2	9
14	Şanlıurfaspor	6	+1	9
15	Menemen FK	6	−1	9
16	12 Bingölspor	6	0	8
17	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	6	−1	8
18	Ankaragücü	5	+4	7
19	1461 Trabzon FK	5	+2	7
20	Erbaaspor	5	+1	7
21	Somaspor	4	+1	7
22	Karacabey Belediyespor	4	−1	7
23	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	6	+1	6
24	Ankaraspor	6	−4	6
25	Kastamonuspor	6	−10	6
26	Serik Spor	5	−3	5
27	Kırklarelispor	4	−2	4
28	Hatayspor	5	−2	4
29	Fethiyespor	5	−5	4
30	Adana Demirspor	5	−6	4
31	Kütahyaspor	6	−9	3
32	Sebat Gençlikspor	5	−4	2
33	İnegölspor	4	−5	1
34	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	6	−10	0
35	İskenderunspor	4	−10	0