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Güzide Gebzespor v Somaspor

Güzide Gebzespor
4–1Full time
Somaspor

2. Lig · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
Güzide Gebzespor 4–1 Somaspor GÜZIDE GEBZESPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Güzide Gebzespor win59%
The market said61%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.252
The market’s Brier score0.230

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Güzide Gebzespor win at 59%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Güzide Gebzespor 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Güzide Gebzespor v Somaspor
  4. 7′A goal for Güzide Gebzespor on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Güzide Gebzespor 1–0 Somaspor
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Güzide Gebzespor win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
  7. 8′We said Güzide Gebzespor at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
  8. 26′Somaspor score on 26′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 53–29–18
  9. 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Güzide Gebzespor 1–1 Somaspor
  10. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Güzide Gebzespor win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
  11. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Güzide Gebzespor win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
  12. 42′We said Güzide Gebzespor at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–35–18
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Güzide Gebzespor 1–1 Somaspor
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Güzide Gebzespor 1–1 Somaspor
  15. 48′We said Güzide Gebzespor at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–39–17
  16. 52′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 42–41–17
  17. 57′We said Güzide Gebzespor at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–45–16
  18. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Güzide Gebzespor win: 59% at kick-off, 39% now
  19. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Güzide Gebzespor win 42%)
  20. 58′Güzide Gebzespor find the net on 57′. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–13–2
  21. 58′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 84–13–2
  22. 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Güzide Gebzespor 2–1 Somaspor
  23. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Güzide Gebzespor win: 59% at kick-off, 84% now
  24. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Güzide Gebzespor win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 45%)
  25. 59′We said Güzide Gebzespor at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  26. 68′A goal for Güzide Gebzespor on 68′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  27. 68′We said Güzide Gebzespor at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  28. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Güzide Gebzespor 3–1 Somaspor
  29. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Güzide Gebzespor win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
  30. 69′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  31. 79′We said Güzide Gebzespor at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  32. 87′Güzide Gebzespor score on 86′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  33. 87′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  34. 87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Güzide Gebzespor 4–1 Somaspor
  35. FTFULL TIME Güzide Gebzespor 4–1 Somaspor
  36. FTGüzide Gebzespor 4–1 Somaspor · Güzide Gebzespor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Güzide Gebzespor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Güzide Gebzespor 59%, draw 23%, Somaspor 18%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Güzide Gebzespor v SomasporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Güzide Gebzespor win59%
Draw23%
Somaspor win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

Round2. Lig White Group · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Güzide Gebzespor

Somaspor

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27 · White Group

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Güzide Gebzespor7+515
12Somaspor6−37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · güzide gebzespor winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
59% The market61%
Us59%
Market61%

We make Güzide Gebzespor a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Güzide Gebzespor v Somaspor1.89 – 0.90
Form · last six in 2. Lig this season · since 6 SeptW3 D3 L0 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 15 v 74 v 12
The market · Güzide Gebzespor win61% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:24
Our probability · Güzide Gebzespor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Güzide Gebzespor win59%61%−2
Draw23%23%0
Somaspor win18%16%+2
Over 2.5 goals52%55%−3
Both teams to score49%52%−3
Over 1.5 goals76%77%−1
Over 3.5 goals31%35%−4
Güzide Gebzespor or draw82%84%−2
Güzide Gebzespor clean sheet42%––
Somaspor clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%
0123450 7.1 5.7 2.8 1 11.5 10.5 4.7 2 10.6 9.0 4.1 3 6.7 5.6 2.5 4 3.4 2.8 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Güzide Gebzespor down, Somaspor across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.33
Over 2.51 of 6
Both scored1 of 6
Last meetingsGUZ 0–1 SOM · SOM 1–2 GUZ · SOM 0–1 GUZ · GUZ 1–0 SOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

GÜZIDE GEBZESPOR

WDDDWW1–0 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

SOMASPOR

DWLWLL3–3 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · White Group
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Muş Sport Klübü7+1119
2Aliağa FAŞ7+518
3Elazığspor7+1416
4Güzide Gebzespor7+515
5Çorluspor 19477+613
6İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik7+413
7Şanlıurfaspor7+312
8Isparta 32 Spor7+111
968 Aksaray Belediyespor7+39
10Menemen FK7−29
11Erbaaspor7−17
12Somaspor6−37
13Ankaraspor7−66
14Kastamonuspor7−104
15Sebat Gençlikspor6−52
16Arnavutköy Belediyespor7−130
17Hatayspor7−7–
18Adana Demirspor7−5–

The competition's standings before kick-off.