Güzide Gebzespor v Erbaaspor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Güzide Gebzespor 2–1 Erbaaspor GÜZIDE GEBZESPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Güzide Gebzespor win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.320

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Güzide Gebzespor win at 54%.
1′KICK-OFF Güzide Gebzespor v Erbaaspor
2′Little has changed for our model: Güzide Gebzespor 54% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
5′Little has changed for our model: Güzide Gebzespor 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Güzide Gebzespor 1–0 Erbaaspor
45′B. Altintas scores for Güzide Gebzespor on 41′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–5
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Güzide Gebzespor win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Güzide Gebzespor win: 54% at kick-off, 49% now
45′HALF-TIME Güzide Gebzespor 1–0 Erbaaspor
46′SECOND HALF Güzide Gebzespor 1–0 Erbaaspor
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Güzide Gebzespor win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Güzide Gebzespor 1–1 Erbaaspor
77′⚽ GOAL · 41' Güzide Gebzespor 1–1 Erbaaspor · B. Altintas (assist M. Erkasap)
77′⚽ GOAL · 65' Güzide Gebzespor 1–1 Erbaaspor · Y. Kargi
90′🟥 RED CARD · 99' Erbaaspor
90′⚽ GOAL · 102' Güzide Gebzespor 2–1 Erbaaspor
FTFULL TIME Güzide Gebzespor 2–1 Erbaaspor
FTGüzide Gebzespor 2–1 Erbaaspor · Güzide Gebzespor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Güzide Gebzespor win54%

Draw23%

Erbaaspor win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Güzide Gebzespor

Erbaaspor

6Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Güzide Gebzespor	5	+3	9
20	Erbaaspor	5	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · güzide gebzespor winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Güzide Gebzespor a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Güzide Gebzespor win	54%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Erbaaspor win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Güzide Gebzespor or draw	77%	–	–
Güzide Gebzespor clean sheet	32%	–	–
Erbaaspor clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.5 5.4 3.3 1 8.7 10.4 5.8 2.3 2 8.3 9.1 5.3 2.1 3 5.3 5.8 3.3 4 2.6 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Güzide Gebzespor down, Erbaaspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,424 2. Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Güzide Gebzespor at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Erbaaspor away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Güzide Gebzespor, 1.17 for Erbaaspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ERB 2–0 GUZ · GUZ 1–1 ERB

Form · last six in 2. Lig

GÜZIDE GEBZESPOR

DWWDDD2–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

ERBAASPOR

LDLWWL1–3 · 4–4 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Muş Sport Klübü	6	+9	16
2	Sakaryaspor	5	+9	15
3	Aliağa FAŞ	6	+4	15
4	Elazığspor	5	+8	10
5	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	4	+7	10
6	Ankara Demirspor	6	+5	10
7	Çorluspor 1947	6	+5	10
8	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	6	+3	10
9	Adana 01 FK	5	+1	10
10	Isparta 32 Spor	6	+1	10
11	Yeni Orduspor	5	+6	9
12	Güzide Gebzespor	5	+3	9
13	24 Erzincanspor	5	+2	9
14	Şanlıurfaspor	6	+1	9
15	Menemen FK	6	−1	9
16	12 Bingölspor	6	0	8
17	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	6	−1	8
18	Ankaragücü	5	+4	7
19	1461 Trabzon FK	5	+2	7
20	Erbaaspor	5	+1	7
21	Somaspor	4	+1	7
22	Karacabey Belediyespor	4	−1	7
23	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	6	+1	6
24	Ankaraspor	6	−4	6
25	Kastamonuspor	6	−10	6
26	Serik Spor	5	−3	5
27	Kırklarelispor	4	−2	4
28	Hatayspor	5	−2	4
29	Fethiyespor	5	−5	4
30	Adana Demirspor	5	−6	4
31	Kütahyaspor	6	−9	3
32	Sebat Gençlikspor	5	−4	2
33	İnegölspor	4	−5	1
34	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	6	−10	0
35	İskenderunspor	4	−10	0