Fethiyespor v Ankaragücü prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Fethiyespor 2–2 Ankaragücü ANKARAGÜCÜ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ankaragücü win~~44%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.800

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.826

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ankaragücü win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ankaragücü 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 28–28–44
1′KICK-OFF Fethiyespor v Ankaragücü
16′E. Sahin scores for Fethiyespor on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 58–23–18
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Fethiyespor 1–0 Ankaragücü · E. Sahin
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Ankaragücü win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Fethiyespor win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Ankaragücü win 18%)
17′We said Ankaragücü at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 59–24–18
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 61–24–15
31′We said Ankaragücü at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Ankaragücü win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
32′Ankaragücü score on 31′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 26–36–38
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Fethiyespor 1–1 Ankaragücü
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Ankaragücü win: 44% at kick-off, 38% now
33′Fethiyespor find the net on 33′. 2–1. 2–1 · 62–24–14
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Fethiyespor 2–1 Ankaragücü
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Ankaragücü win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
34′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 62–24–14
45′HALF-TIME Fethiyespor 2–1 Ankaragücü
46′SECOND HALF Fethiyespor 2–1 Ankaragücü
49′We said Ankaragücü at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 67–24–9
53′A goal for Ankaragücü on 53′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 22–47–31
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Fethiyespor 2–2 Ankaragücü
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Ankaragücü win: 44% at kick-off, 31% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Fethiyespor win 22%)
54′E. Tepecik scores for Ankaragücü on 52′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 22–47–31
55′We said Ankaragücü at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 2–2 · 21–48–30
56′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 21–49–30
57′We said Ankaragücü at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 21–50–29
66′We said Ankaragücü at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 18–58–24
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Ankaragücü win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Ankaragücü win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
90′We said Ankaragücü at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 3–92–4
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Ankaragücü win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Fethiyespor 2–2 Ankaragücü
FTFethiyespor 2–2 Ankaragücü · Ankaragücü win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ankaragücü are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fethiyespor 28%, draw 28%, Ankaragücü 44%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Fethiyespor v AnkaragücüBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fethiyespor win28%

Draw28%

Ankaragücü win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

Round2. Lig Red Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fethiyespor

Ankaragücü

6Days since last match13

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 4 Oct · 2. Lig

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Ankaragücü	5	+4	7
15	Fethiyespor	6	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ankaragücü winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market47%

Us44%

~~Market~~47%

We make Ankaragücü a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fethiyespor v Ankaragücü~~1.04 – 1.39

~~Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~15 v 11

~~The market · Ankaragücü win~~47% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ankaragücü win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fethiyespor win	28%	26%	+2
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Ankaragücü win	44%	47%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	43%	51%	−8
Both teams to score	47%	55%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	69%	74%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	23%	30%	−7
Fethiyespor or draw	56%	53%	+3
Fethiyespor clean sheet	26%	–	–
Ankaragücü clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.9 11.9 8.3 4.0 1 9.0 12.5 8.2 3.9 2 4.9 6.4 4.3 2.0 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fethiyespor down, Ankaragücü across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,433 2. Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Fethiyespor at home: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ankaragücü away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Fethiyespor, 1.39 for Ankaragücü. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

FETHIYESPOR

LLDWLL0–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

ANKARAGÜCÜ

LLDWW0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27 · Red Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	6	+9	16
2	Adana 01 FK	6	+2	13
3	Yeni Orduspor	6	+7	12
4	24 Erzincanspor	6	+4	12
5	1461 Trabzon FK	7	+3	11
6	Ankara Demirspor	6	+5	10
7	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	5	+5	10
8	12 Bingölspor	6	0	8
9	Karacabey Belediyespor	5	−1	8
10	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	6	−1	8
11	Ankaragücü	5	+4	7
12	Serik Spor	6	−4	5
13	Kırklarelispor	5	−3	4
14	İnegölspor	6	−5	4
15	Fethiyespor	6	−6	4
16	Kütahyaspor	6	−9	3
17	İskenderunspor	5	−10	–